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Trade Service
First, the fundamentals
First, the fundamentalsJanuary and August primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) output was 2.
84 million tons
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production in August was 2.
84 million tons, up 7.
8% year-on-year, but down 3.
07% month-on-month; This is mainly because the high cost of raw materials has compressed the profit margins
of production enterprises.
Primary aluminum production from January to August was 22.
21 million tons, an increase of 3.
5%
over the same period last year.
2.
China's alumina production in August increased by 6.
3% year-on-year
Data show that in August 2018, the national alumina output was 5.
594 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.
3%.
From January to August 2018, the national output of alumina was 44.
757 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.
8%.
In March, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 517,000 tons
Customs data shows that China's exports of unwrought aluminum and related aluminum products rose to 517,000 tons in August 2018, with a total export volume of 3.
75 million tons from January to August, a surge of 15%
over the same period last year.
From June to August, China's aluminum exports exceeded 1.
5 million tons, a new high
for three consecutive months.
The main reason for the surge in exports in the past three months was due to the decrease in foreign aluminum supply, and Rusal was sanctioned; Brazil's Alunorte alumina refinery cuts capacity in half; Alcoa strike.
April and August scrap imports were 130,000 tons, down 23.
4% year-on-year
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's scrap aluminum imports in August 2018 were 130,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 23.
4%; The cumulative import volume was 1.
1 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 22.
3%.
Second, the market review
Second, the market review
This month, Shanghai aluminum followed the external market down, the beginning of the month from the 15,000 mark straight down, even if the price of alumina even hit a new high, and Rusal production reduction rumors are around, Shandong clear captive power plant cross-subsidy standards, raised the cost of electrolytic aluminum, have not boosted aluminum prices, due to the further escalation of the Sino-US trade war, the market is concerned about the introduction of 200 billion tariffs, resulting in a weak overall trend of aluminum prices, the overall shock around 14500, and this month coincides with the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day small long holiday, the last week, as the market stocking gradually completed, As well as the Fed's three interest rate hikes, the strength of the dollar made aluminum prices fall again, the main force fell below the 14500 mark support, the lowest test to 14275
.
In terms of external trading, this month's Lun aluminum center of gravity downward, at the beginning of the month due to the Sino-US trade war, investors are worried about the impact of $200 billion commodity tariffs on the market, so Lun aluminum from around $2100 all the way down, the lowest in the month to 2007 US dollars, down 7.
85%, and Alcoa Western Australia alumina workers' strike, so that foreign alumina supply further tightened, support Lun aluminum fell limited, and then stopped falling and rebounded, ushered in a wave of rebound market, obviously Lun aluminum $2000 mark support is obvious
。 And the Sino-US trade war tariff landed, the new round of tariffs between the United States and China was less than expected, Lun aluminum regained its rise, but the lack of good news to promote, the overall shock near the 2050 mark, just when everyone thought that aluminum prices would stabilize, the US economic data at the end of the month was strong, the dollar strengthened, Lun aluminum fell again, the lowest intraday down to $2025
.
In terms of the market, East China: due to the continuous escalation of the trade war, suppressing the trend of metals, aluminum futures fell continuously, dragging down spot aluminum and falling, as of September 28, East China spot aluminum quotation 14270, down 3.
4% from the beginning of the month, spot discount maintained between 50-flat water
.
Market transactions, because this month coincides with the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, the overall transaction of the mid-month market is acceptable, and the holders maintain stable shipments.
South China: Also affected by the macro environment, the price of aluminum ingots in South China this month also shifted downward, as of September 28, the price of aluminum ingots in South China was 14,620 yuan / ton, down 3.
5% from the beginning of
the year.
Compared with the price of aluminum ingots in East China, the price difference between the two is maintained at about
350 yuan / ton.
Market transactions, sufficient market supply circulation, active shipments of cargo holders, downstream enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm is obviously not high, and the stock is slightly less, and the overall transaction is slightly light
.
3.
Inventory
Inventory
As of September 27, the total inventory of Lun aluminum fell below the 1 million ton mark, to 990,000 tons, down 80,000 tons from August, down 7.
5%, and hit a new record low, short-term is expected to continue the downward trend, is expected to hit a new low
.
Shanghai aluminum inventory, this month because of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day manufacturers, the inventory of the Shanghai Exchange showed a clear downward trend, as of September 21, the aluminum inventory of the Shanghai Exchange reached 840,000 tons, a decrease of nearly 40,000 tons from the end of August, a decrease of 4.
46%; In addition, as of September 27, the domestic social inventory, as of September 27, Shanghai area 363,000 tons, Wuxi area 686,000 tons, Hangzhou area 93,000 tons, Gongyi area 138,000 tons, South China Sea area 203,000 tons, Tianjin 56,000 tons, Linyi 24,000 tons, Chongqing 27,000 tons, consumption of aluminum ingot stocks totaled 1.
59 million tons, hit a new low since September 2017, the trend of destocking gradually reflected
.
Fourth, the waste market
Fourth, the waste marketIn September, the price of scrap aluminum fell with the price of aluminum, of which aluminum wire and machine aluminum performed more obviously, and the decline was different in different
regions.
South China saw a significant decline, with some falling as much as 500 yuan; The decline in central and northern China is generally around 300 yuan, of which Hunan and Hebei are more obvious
.
In terms of scrap aluminum market, due to increasingly strict environmental protection and limited production technology, aluminum alloy new white materials and clean, waterless and oil-free aluminum chips are more popular in the market, but these goods circulate less in the market, and many of them will be secretly consumed
。 Among scrap aluminum products, the price of aluminum wire, cans, clean aluminum door and window materials, broken bridge materials and other scrap aluminum is relatively stable in the market: the price of cans is generally about 9000 yuan, the price of door and window materials is about 10400 yuan, the price of broken bridge material is about 9400 yuan, and the above price fluctuates 100-200 yuan according to the actual quality of the spot; The price of aluminum slag, aluminum ash, aluminum chips and other scrap aluminum crushed materials is converted by the amount of aluminum water that can be produced
.
The price of circulating sources in the current scrap aluminum market is generally high, in addition to the price increase of middlemen, there are also the original high-price channel cooperation sources, due to the default of the cooperative channel account period, it begins to flow to the market
at high prices.
In terms of trading, the transaction in early and mid-September was acceptable, but the scrap aluminum market trading in the second half was average
.
In terms of environmental protection policies, before the end of September, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surrounding regions will complete the compilation of the list of emission reduction measures for the emergency plan for heavily polluted weather, and report it to the Ministry of Ecology and Environment for the record
.
All localities focus on high-emission industries such as steel, building materials, coking, casting, nonferrous metals, and chemicals, and strictly prohibit "one-size-fits-all" according to local conditions, and promote the implementation of peak-shifting production
during the heating period of industrial enterprises.
It is understood that many small and medium-sized recycled aluminum smelters are starting at night, orders are reduced, the operating rate is not as good as before, and the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" may be difficult to prove
this year.
5.
Market outlook
Market outlook
This month, the center of gravity of Lun aluminum moved down, at the beginning of the month due to the escalation of the Sino-US trade war, Lun aluminum from around $2100 all the way down, the lowest down to near the 2000 mark, from the trend point of view, Lun aluminum $2000 mark still has strong support, it is expected that October Lun aluminum is expected to fluctuate stable, the overall fluctuation range in the 1980-2150 US dollar range
。 Shanghai aluminum also followed the decline of aluminum aluminum, even if the price of alumina even hit a new high, and Rusal production reduction rumors are everywhere, Shandong clear captive power plant cross-subsidy standards, raised the cost of electrolytic aluminum, did not boost aluminum prices, the strength of the dollar made aluminum prices hit one after another, the main force of Shanghai aluminum lost the 14500 mark support, in the short term, macro instability still has an impact on aluminum prices, but considering the support of high costs, and the gradual implementation of production restrictions in the heating season, it is expected that the overall decline space of Shanghai aluminum is limited, and the following attention to the 14200 mark support, It is expected that the aluminum price is expected to stabilize in October, and it is more likely to return above 14500 in the later period, and the overall shock range is 14200-15000
.
