Seasonal supply and demand are weak The logic of the long-term rise of natural rubber remains unchanged

In the external market, intra-holiday futures market SICOM (TSR20 main contract) rose 2.
49% to 169 cents/kg, and TOCOM (RSS3 main contract) rose 6.
79% to 16.
5%.

In the foreign market, the reference price of Thailand's No.
20 rubber and No.
20 mixed rubber rose by $65 / ton to $1,740 / ton in March, an increase of 3.
88%.

In terms of demand, the start of tires and downstream products fell to the lowest level in the year during the Spring Festival, and most enterprises began to resume work one after another on the eighth day of the first month of the holiday, and basically all entered the starting state on the 15th of the first month, boosting the expectation of demand for natural rubber and entering a relatively high demand stage during the year
.

In terms of inventory, the absolute inventory pressure of China's natural rubber is still large, but there is no significant increase around the Spring Festival, which forms a medium and long-term suppression of rubber prices, and it is difficult to cause short-term suppression
.

In other aspects, the global currency maintained an easing policy, and safe-haven funds returned after the holiday, and Brent and WTI rose 4.
67% and 4.
19% respectively in international oil prices
.

On the whole, the macro is good, crude oil drives commodities upward, the industry is close to the lowest production stage of the year, Thai raw materials have risen sharply, downstream demand after the holiday resumption of production concentrated stage to raise demand to increase expectations, inventory short-term suppression action is not obvious, superimposed in the festival foreign futures and spot prices are sharply higher, it is expected that the domestic market after the first trading day after the Spring Festival may open higher
.