Russia-Ukraine conflict, Middle East oil producers become "new variables"

After the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf Arab countries have become important targets
that the United States and Russia are trying to win over at the same time.
The United States, Britain and other countries have been urging these Middle Eastern oil producers to increase production in order to lower oil prices, and the purpose of this is undoubtedly to draw wages
from Russia under sanctions.
However, the response of Saudi Arabia and other countries is not very positive, and the limited increase in production has not lowered international oil prices
.
After the Russian foreign minister visited Oman, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf oil-producing countries in May, Biden's first trip to the Middle East, originally scheduled for June, was postponed to mid-July.

To give the "face" of the US allies and to maintain the "lizi" of cooperation with Russia, the approach of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, led by Saudi Arabia
, is becoming more and more intriguing.
During the Middle East war, Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing countries became a variable affecting the world's political and economic pattern, and half a century later, these oil-producing countries in the Middle East became "new variables", defending their own interests with a more humble attitude, and even some have begun to plan for self-sufficiency
in food, military, science and technology in the "post-Russian-Ukrainian conflict era" from the academic level.

Samet has "gaps", but not "evil"

For some time, there have been many arguments about the uncertainty and even "evil" in the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the United States, especially in the "Khashoggi murder case", Biden's criticism and deliberate estrangement of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has caused the relations between the two countries to fall into a trough
.
When the crown prince refused to speak to Biden on the increase in oil production, Saudi public opinion had similar comments
.
However, according to my observations and interviews with some Saudi political analysts, the so-called "evil" is only an over-interpretation
of superficial issues.
Some Saudi analysts said that the Saudi government has never had a good feeling for the US Democratic government that pursues the "concept of values diplomacy", and the recent "gap" on the surface of bilateral relations is essentially an extension
of this phenomenon.
In the eyes of the Saudis, the deeper reason for the continuous development of this "gap" is that Saudi Arabia is increasingly aware that the United States' Middle East policy is inferior to the other, and it is not stable and sustainable
.

Recently, Abdul Aziz Sagar, chairman of the Saudi Gulf Research Center, expressed his dissatisfaction with
the US government in an interview program on Saudi "News" television 。 He first listed the positions taken by the three administrations of Obama, Trump, and Biden on the Iranian nuclear issue, and then summarized the "four deadly sins" of the United States: First, "it is the United States that has changed established policies and violated past commitments, so that we cannot judge its future direction, while Saudi Arabia pursues a stable and lasting policy", "Saudi Arabia, together with other Arab countries in the Gulf, urgently needs to understand the true position of the United States Government on past commitments, especially in important areas related to regional security"; Second, the US Congress often gives special treatment to Israel in the discussion of foreign arms sales, but it creates obstacles for Saudi Arabia and other countries, and tries to obstruct its strategic intention to achieve autonomy and self-sufficiency in military equipment; Third, the current US policy toward the GCC countries is still at the "tactical" rather than "strategic" level, which is reflected in the US eagerness to demand that Saudi Arabia increase oil production, strongly condemn Russia in the Russian-Ukrainian dispute, and weaken ties with China; Fourth, the United States often "pays lip service but does not arrive", Trump made a promise in his visit to Saudi Arabia at the beginning of his visit to Saudi Arabia that if the oil facilities in Saudi Arabia are attacked, the United States is bound to take countermeasures, but after a period of time Saudi Arabia was attacked by Yemen's Houthi armed forces, the United States did not move
.

Although Biden's visit to Saudi Arabia has been postponed, Saudi Arabia and the United States have recently appointed high-level representatives to meet with each other's leaders, and the intention of the two sides to repair relations is very obvious
.
The established and ongoing cooperation between Saudi Arabia and the United States is also continuing
.
Taking dealing with Iran and building an integrated air defense system in the Gulf region as an example, the United States still maintains a high frequency of interaction and exchanges
with the Saudi Arabian-led GCC countries.

During my inspection in Saudi Arabia from 2018 to 2019, the author also found that the United States has "deeply cultivated" Saudi Arabia for decades, and its influence cannot be underestimated
.
"In Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, the mainstream understanding of the United States is the world's largest country, and the same will be true for some time to come
.
" In the exchange, some Saudi youth talked about the United States, and they said bluntly, "The United States is usually our first choice for studying abroad
.
" I remember that the author was invited to participate in the family salon held by Saudi scholars, during which there were American "scientific researchers" who expounded the US government's policy on Saudi Arabia in fluent Saudi dialect, and dozens of Saudi scholars present here seemed to have become accustomed to it, but the author's biggest feeling was that the United States had spent a lot of effort
on the study and envelopment of Saudi Arabia.

Despite years of "hard work", the gradual weakening of the alliance system between the United States and the Gulf region has become the trend of the times
.
According to the author's observation, from the Trump administration to the Biden administration, the Saudi people's sentiment toward the United States has undergone a significant change from once "close" and "concerned" to "alienated" and "indifferent", and there are also people who call "Biden a liar" on social media because they are dissatisfied with the US policy toward Saudi Arabia
.
For the Biden administration, under the premise of the continued downturn in the polls and the successive strengthening of relations between China and Russia with the GCC countries, it may also be clear that bridging the "gap" with Saudi Arabia and repairing the overall relationship with the Gulf Arab countries is a "laborious and unflattering" helpless move
.

▲ On November 23, 2021, a truck drove past the White House in
Washington, D.
C.
(Image source: Xinhua News Agency)

"OPEC+, Exclude Politics from Decision-Making"

In the face of soaring oil prices, Biden asked Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, two major Middle East oil producers, for help in early March, but both leaders refused to answer the call
from the US president.
The US media judged that the United States and the Middle East oil producers are gradually drifting apart
.
This is partly because the Biden administration's refusal to add Yemen's Houthi forces to the list of "terrorist organizations" has upset Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and some Gulf states believe that the United States' attempt to restart the Iran nuclear deal is detrimental to its own interests
.

What's more, Saudi Arabia and Russia have dominated the OPEC+ alliance for years, working together to control energy production to stabilize
market prices.
On March 29, Saudi Arabia's energy minister made it clear that OPEC+ would exclude politics from its decision-making in favor of the "common interest"
of stabilizing energy prices.
Saudi Arabia's "ignoring" strategy of the Biden administration has objectively added energy chips to Russia's game with the West on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, and the Putin government is keenly aware that the "gap" between Saudi Arabia and the United States is a rare and valuable opportunity for Russia, and it needs to strengthen pragmatic ties
with the Saudi government as soon as possible.

Looking back at history, after the outbreak of the fourth Middle East war in 1973, in order to combat the opponent Israel and the countries that support Israel, Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern oil producers announced an oil embargo and suspended exports, so that the price of crude oil rose from less than $3 per barrel to $
13.
The first oil crisis plunged the Western economies into recession
.
The use of "oil weapons" by Saudi Arabia and other countries also became one of
the variables affecting the war in the Middle East at that time.
Former U.
S.
Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said: "Never before has a group of small and weak nations been able to force such dramatic changes in the way of life of other nations, who make up the vast majority of humanity, with so little
protest.
" ”

"The world must get rid of its energy dependence
on Russia.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are key international partners
.
British Prime Minister Johnson said
this during a lightning visit to the Shah's two major oil-producing countries in March to try to lobby them to increase production.
However, these Middle East oil-producing countries did not fully follow the ideas of the United States and Britain and other countries to use "oil weapons"
in the Russian-Ukrainian crisis.
Kuwaiti scholar Mohammed Ramish recently wrote in the Saudi important academic journal "Viewpoint" that the Gulf Arab countries have adopted a "not completely consistent but generally neutral" position and practice since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict: the UAE, then a non-permanent member of the Security Council, first refused to condemn Russia in the form of a negative vote, and then supported the condemnation at the United Nations General Assembly together with other GCC countries; Foreign ministers of the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Iraq and other countries also visited Moscow to try to understand its true intentions and find a political solution to the Ukrainian crisis; Kuwait has condemned Russia's "occupation," while Saudi Arabia has provided assistance
only to war-affected Ukrainian refugees through the King Salman Assistance Center.
But in general, the GCC states, traditional allies of the United States, have echoed the West's discontent with Russia only in the form of non-binding verbal condemnations, without putting themselves on the opposite side
of the conflict.

What is even more interesting is that with the repair of relations between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, in the context of the integration process of the GCC countries once again ushering in development opportunities, the Gulf Arab countries dare to say "no" to the demands of the United States and its Western allies, and fully realize that the US sanctions against Russia are first sacrificed to the interests of their European allies, so they are unsustainable, which also invisibly increases the strategic influence of the GCC countries that can influence
oil prices.

Regarding the deep reasons for the "toughness" of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other countries, Rahman Yusuf, a Sudanese Saudi observer and senior media person of the Middle East News, told the author: "Recently, Saudi Arabia has begun not to fear pressure from the United States because of its own strength considerations
.
As a member of the G20, Saudi Arabia has many friends, and China, Russia and many other countries are important partners
.
In fact, as early as the Obama administration, Saudi Arabia no longer cared too much about pressure from the United States, and what Saudi Arabia tried to build was a strategic alliance that meant that allies should care about each other's interests
.
Since Biden plans to visit Saudi Arabia and Israel, he should understand Saudi Arabia's concerns and concerns about Saudi security, and there is no gain
without paying.
”

Early layout of the "post-Russian-Ukrainian conflict era"

Rahman Yusuf also told this writer: "When the US government presses Saudi Arabia for political purposes, Saudi Arabia will remind the US side that 'Saudi Arabia still has many big countries and allies to cooperate' in exchange for the US side to restore its sanity
.
" "In the author's view, driven by practical interests, the Saudi government will continue to pursue a diversified foreign policy under the framework of the Saudi-US alliance and strengthen relations with countries including China and Russia so that it can have a say in the game
.
"

Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Gulf oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are gradually regarded by international public opinion as "new variables that can affect the international pattern" and have brought many enlightenments
to other countries.
The preface to the latest issue of Saudi Perspectives reads: "The Russian-Ukrainian war was not a simple and ordinary event, it was more like a great earthquake that shook the world, and its impact in various fields affected almost all countries in the world, so it was enough to affect and even change the old pattern of the international community, although the new pattern under establishment is still unclear
.
" 。 The journal also mentioned that with the extension of the process of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, a phenomenon of "polarization" that gradually disappeared after the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the Soviet Union has become clearer and more and is gradually emerging, and the reason why the Gulf Arab countries have been able to respond to the development of the Russian-Ukrainian situation with "maximum moderation, wisdom and neutrality" and uphold the principle of peace, dialogue to resolve disputes, first of all, stems from the establishment of strategic relations (directly or indirectly) with all parties to the conflict, and secondly, because it can influence the international energy market.
The third is because it formulates and pursues national policies
based on neutrality and realism.

In the Middle East media, many Arab scholars wrote articles saying that the Gulf countries in the "post-Russian-Ukrainian conflict era" should make timely arrangements and strive to achieve self-sufficiency
in food and military equipment.

In the author's view, this overall atmosphere of the Gulf region, which seeks to get rid of traditional constraints, achieve security and independence, and self-sufficiency in food and science and technology, is fundamentally conducive to the relevant countries to "expand with small and broad", and this clear understanding of getting rid of energy and food dependence and turning to diversified development is originally a "new variable"
worthy of attention to the international political and economic pattern.
In recent years, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries have tried to strengthen cooperation with China in the automotive industry, artificial intelligence and other scientific and technological industries, which has also attracted the attention of
Western countries.

Focusing on exchanges and relations with the three most important countries affecting the international pattern of the United States, Russia and China, Abdullah Faraj, chief scholar of the Saudi Research and Knowledge Exchange Center and an expert on Russian-Chinese issues, told the author: "It is the strength
of each 'corner' that determines the 'triangle' pillar relationship between Saudi Arabia and China, the United States and Russia.
From the very beginning of its founding, Saudi Arabia has been able to adjust its direction
in a timely manner according to the changing power structure.
At present, China and Russia are seen as challenging the status of the United States, and the United States is also responding to this challenge, Saudi Arabia is based on the experience of its predecessors and timely adjusted its relations with other countries to adapt to the changing international landscape
.
”

It is not difficult to see that Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Arab states under its influence will continue to pursue a diversified foreign policy, but these Middle Eastern oil producers are not willing to unconditionally echo the "multilateralism" initiative
on any occasion.
Looking at the development history of modern Saudi Arabia in the past hundred years, combined with the overall process of the integration of the GCC countries, a strong mentality from "Mu Qiang" and "from strong" to "self-reliance and self-reliance" exists in the character and national character of the Arab nation in the Gulf region, and to a large extent affects and influences their style of conduct and foreign exchange standards
.

For China, how to recognize and get closer to this "new variable" and continuously strengthen the co-construction and sharing between China and Saudi Arabia and China and the GCC countries under the framework of existing strategic relations are all important issues
.
(End) (The author is Ph.
D.
of Beijing University of Foreign Chinese, Visiting Researcher of China-Arab Reform and Development Research Center, Visiting Scholar of Saudi Research and Knowledge Exchange Center)