Russia could halt 3 million b/d oil production from April Global oil demand is expected to fall

Russia could halt 3 million b/d of oil production starting in April as sanctions lead buyers to refuse to buy
, the International Energy Agency said in a monthly report on Wednesday.

"We expect total (Russia's) exports to fall by 2.
5 million b/d, including 1.
5 million b/d for crude oil and 1 million b/d
for refined products," the IEA said in the report.
”

Rising commodity prices and sanctions on Russia "are expected to significantly dampen global growth" and affect inflation, exposing the oil market to the risk
of undersupply and uncertainty, the IEA said.

While the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has exacerbated the shortage of production capacity, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have so far not shown willingness to
use reserves.
The IEA expects rising oil production in the United States, Canada and other countries to eliminate the global supply shortfall, which is expected to reach 700,000 barrels
per day in the second quarter.

On Iranian oil, the IEA believes that any additional supply from Iran could take months, but if Iran reaches a deal, oil exports could increase by about 1 million b/d
over a six-month period.

The report also noted that total OECD industrial inventories fell by 22.
1 million barrels in January, the lowest level
since April 2014.

On the demand side, the IEA cut its global oil demand forecast by 1.
3 million b/d for the second to fourth quarter of 2022, while for the full year it lowered its demand growth forecast by 950,000 b/d to 2.
1 million b/d, which would mean that global oil demand will be below pre-pandemic levels for the third consecutive year, after the agency had expected demand to recover
in 2022.
In addition, the agency expects domestic demand for petroleum products to decline.

However, the IEA believes that the turmoil in the oil and gas market caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict may accelerate the global transition
away from fossil fuels and towards clean energy.
The agency will release a report later this week offering recommendations to member states on how to control short-term fuel demand
.