Rubber under pressure falls short-term test below the support level

At present
, the main domestic production areas have entered the stage of suspension.
In terms of foreign production areas, the Thai Meteorological Bureau has continued to issue "cooling" weather warnings since January 27, with increased rainfall and thunderstorms in most areas of the southern production area, which has hindered
the output of raw materials.
According to statistics, as of January 27, in the raw material purchase price of natural rubber manufacturers in Thailand, the purchase price of southern glue is expected to increase by 2.
5 baht / kg, the purchase price of cup rubber is expected to increase by 0.
5 baht / kg, and the purchase price of cup rubber in the northeast is expected to increase by 0.
5 baht / kg, and the supply is expected
to be tight.
However, defoliation disease in the early stage has not had a significant impact
on its import and export.
According to statistics, Thailand's exports of tianjiao in December 2020 were 386,300 tons, up 5.
03%
from the previous month.
However, cutting is expected to be halted at the end of January in northeastern Thailand, in mid-February in some areas, and by the end of February in the south, and the actual impact
of the epidemic and weather on production will continue to be monitored.

Approaching the Spring Festival holiday, tire factories throughout Shandong Province have successively formulated plans
for the suspension and resumption of work during the Spring Festival.
It is understood that most tire companies in Dongying and Weifang areas of Shandong plan to stop work around February 4 for holidays and resume work around February 19, which is consistent
with the rhythm of shutdown in previous years.
Some factories said a small number of migrant workers had returned home
.
Therefore, the operating rate of downstream tire factories will continue to decline
near the Spring Festival.
At present, the average inventory turnover days of semi-steel tire enterprises are 37.
61 days, and the average inventory turnover days of all-steel tire enterprises are 41.
75 days, which is lower than the same period
of previous years.

On the whole, the short-term downstream market's support for raw materials before the Spring Festival is gradually weakening, especially next week, the market is about to enter the Spring Festival holiday, and procurement will enter a flat period
.
From the perspective of production areas, the short-term impact of weather in southern Thailand may have tight supply expectations, but it will take time to verify
the actual impact on the follow-up.
In general, the short-term rubber price will test the support level of 14,000 yuan / ton below, and the long operation needs to be cautious
.