-
Categories
-
Pharmaceutical Intermediates
-
Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients
-
Food Additives
- Industrial Coatings
- Agrochemicals
- Dyes and Pigments
- Surfactant
- Flavors and Fragrances
- Chemical Reagents
- Catalyst and Auxiliary
- Natural Products
- Inorganic Chemistry
-
Organic Chemistry
-
Biochemical Engineering
- Analytical Chemistry
-
Cosmetic Ingredient
- Water Treatment Chemical
-
Pharmaceutical Intermediates
Promotion
ECHEMI Mall
Wholesale
Weekly Price
Exhibition
News
-
Trade Service
The first half of the 2019 natural rubber market can be described as ups and downs, and the second half of the market is still quite worrying
.
The first quarter experienced a sharp rise of nearly 10% in February, and the number of March fell back to the starting line; In the second quarter, April first rebounded by 4% and then started a decline mode, until the last trading day customs announced the policy on "mixed rubber classification" to start the rising mode
.
In May, rubber prices continued to rise, mixed rubber classification inspection, high temperature drought and pest pests have a huge impact, especially the shortage of new rubber supply has caused concerns about future market supply, the price of tianjiao has risen sharply by 10%, and the subsequent sentiment has fallen, and the high price of rubber has been lowered by more than 3 points
.
June continued to be weak and volatile, with a monthly decline of 5.
7%, which was called "very difficult to do business"
.
After entering July, the listing date of the No.
20 rubber at the beginning of the month was determined, which had a great impact on the whole latex, just as the rubber production season superimposed downstream demand did not improve, the sky rubber continued to decline, the RU1909 contract on the 9th intraday lowest 10580 points, the close of 10810 points, down 4.
62%, the largest one-day decline in nearly half a year; The market shock downward adjustment continued, until the RU1909 contract closed at 10460 points on the 16th, down 150 on the day, the lowest point of the month, and then Tianjiao opened the shock rebound in the second half of the month and then slightly lowered the trend, and the main contract closed at 10670 points
on the 31st.
In terms of rubber production: seasonally, domestic and foreign rubber production areas should be the peak season of rubber production, according to the usual, the market is generally very worried about the large increase in supply in the future market, demand is not strong, and prices are under pressure to decline; The first half of July did go out of the peak season trend of previous years and continued to decline, but in the second half of the month, several important situations in major producing areas spread rapidly, and the short-term impact of the news on market prices was very obvious
。 First of all, the largest rubber producer - Thailand: Bangkok July 24 news, Thai meteorological department recently said that since the rainy season, because the tropical cyclone from the southern sea is less powerful than in previous years, rain can not enter the inland area, the average monthly rainfall in northern Thailand, northeast and parts of the central plains is far below normal, Thailand is experiencing the most severe drought in nearly 10 years, rubber production in these areas accounted for a small proportion, the impact on production should be viewed
rationally 。 Secondly, Indonesia: July 24 news, a senior official of Indonesia's Ministry of Agriculture said on Wednesday that Indonesia's natural rubber production in 2019 is expected to fall by 15%
from 3.
76 million tons in 2018, affected by fungal diseases.
Kasdi Subagyono, head of plantations at Indonesia's Ministry of Agriculture, said: "Fungal diseases have already affected about 381,900 hectares of rubber plantations and are expected to spread
further.
The Indonesian government said earlier this month that the disease may have spread in some areas; For Indonesia, there is also experience
in the past management of such diseases.
Again, China's Yunnan experienced a severe drought in the second quarter, this month drought eased, local rubber prices compared with the same period in June has fallen by 600 yuan / ton, there is news that a rubber farmer in Jingne Township, Jinghong City, said: "Because the price of rubber is too low, some rubber farmers have given up tapping
.
" ”
Import and Export Volume: China: China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber, including latex, were 441,000 mt in June, down 27%
from a year earlier, according to data released by its General Administration of Customs.
From January to June, the cumulative import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) was 3.
076 million tons, down 7.
7%
from 3.
333 million tons in the same period last year.
Thailand: Thailand's exports of natural rubber in June 2019 were 323,700 tons (including latex and mixed rubber), down 30,100 tons, or 8.
5%, and down 19.
82%
year-on-year, according to the data.
Among them, the export of mixed rubber was 31,100 tons, down 65% month-on-month and 74% year-on-year; The export volume of dry rubber was 220,000 tons, an increase of 45,700 tons, or 22.
22%; The export volume of latex was 72,600 tons, down 19,000 tons, or 20.
70%.
Demand: Downstream consumption declined, tire companies started to fall recently, and tire production continued to decline
in the first half of the year.
Around the 20th, the National Bureau of Statistics released domestic rubber tire production data in the first half of the year, saying that in the first half of the year, China's total tire production showed a year-on-year downward trend
.
In June, China's rubber tire tire production was 70.
279 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.
2%.
From January to June, the total production of tires was 403.
745 million tires, down 1%
year-on-year.
Due to statistical calibre, combined with the data released last year, this decline may be even greater
.
According to data from the First Commercial Vehicle Network, in June 2019, China's heavy-duty truck market sold a total of 100,000 models of various types, down 8% month-on-month and 11% year-on-year, which is also the largest decline in monthly sales of heavy-duty trucks since 2019
.
From January to June, cumulative sales in the heavy-duty truck market were 652,600 units, down 3%
y/y.
Inventory: data show that the recent inventory outside the bonded zone continued to decline, exchange inventory is still high, July 31 data show that futures inventory is more than 430,000 tons, warehouse receipt inventory is as much as 400,000 tons, the main warehouse receipt reduced to more than
270,000 on the 31st.
The current season of rubber production, the overall trend of supply continues to increase, the growth rate is affected by natural conditions, drought in Thailand, Indonesian diseases and typhoons in the rainy season in southern China, etc.
, we believe that natural conditions are favorable to the market in the short term, and have a stabilizing effect on the current overall downward price trend
.
In general, the basic contradiction of natural rubber has not changed, and No.
20 rubber will be listed on August 12, the current price of full latex may continue to be weak, pay close attention to the impact
before and after the listing of No.
20 rubber.
