Rubber slight oscillation partial thinking treated

News: 1.
According to Longzhong information statistics, as of the week of April 9, the operating rate of domestic semi-steel tire manufacturers was 61.
07%, down 3.
23% month-on-month and 6.
18% year-on-year; The operating rate of all-steel tire manufacturers was 64.
49%, down 2.
00% month-on-month and 7.
62%
year-on-year.
2.
Vietnam's exports of tianjiao in March fell year-on-year, and the export of mixed rubber to China fell by 50
% year-on-year.
3.
In February 2020, Malaysia's tianjiao production decreased
year-on-year.

Market quotation: Shanghai market 18-year state-owned full latex reported 9800 (+0) yuan / ton, Vietnam 3L reported 10000 (+0) yuan / ton, Thailand No.
3 tobacco film reported 12100 (+0) yuan / ton
.
Qingdao market STR20 stock spot reported 1150 (+10) US dollars / ton, Qingdao market STR20 April cargo reported 1155 (+10) US dollars / ton
.
Thai Hat Yai raw material market raw film 37.
49 (-0.
06) baht/kg; Tai San tobacco tablets 39.
81 (+0.
02) baht/kg; field glue 37.
1 (+0.
7) baht/kg; Cup gum 27 (+0.
3) baht/kg
.
Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber in North China 1502 market price 7900 (+0) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 7600 (+0) yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: RU warehouse receipt 235420 tons, -50 tons; NR warehouse receipt 67,052 tons, +202 tons
.
Main positions: RU2009 top 20 long positions 77306, +718; short positions 119765, +911; long and short increase, net short increase
.

Summary: From the current fundamental point of view, the domestic Yunnan and Hainan production areas have postponed cutting, and overseas raw materials have fallen to historical lows
.
In the downstream, the operating rate of domestic tire factories has recently declined month-on-month, affected by the reduction of export orders and the slowdown in domestic shipments, some companies have begun to reduce negative control of finished product inventory, and the later operating rate is still likely
to decline.
In addition, the low price of crude oil has caused the price of synthetic rubber to follow the decline, which has a certain drag
on the price of natural rubber.
Due to the slow recovery of demand, rubber stocks in Qingdao have continued to rise recently, and the later destocking process may be longer
than in previous years.
International oil prices have weakened again, which may drag down rubber prices, and it is recommended to treat the shock with a bearish idea
.