Rubber short-term pullback stabilized shock thinking treatment

Recently, Banna rubber tapping is normal, the supply of raw materials tends to be normal, and overseas alternative planting index rubber has entered customs one after another, and the tight supply situation has eased; The rainy weather in the Hainan production area is repeated, and the output of raw material glue is limited
.

In terms of inventory, the entry of alternative indicators is gradually increasing, superimposed on the increase in Vietnamese rubber imports, and the accumulation of light-colored rubber is still expected; With the pre-holiday stocking basically ended, the inventory may be expected
to recover.

In the near future, output in Malaysia and Indonesia has stabilized, and China and Vietnam will gradually stop cutting
.
From the perspective of production areas, Thailand is still in a state of high production
.
Southern Thailand mainly rained, and raw material output basically returned to normal
.
Thailand No.
20 glue and No.
3 tobacco flake gum are expected
to increase production.
The Yunnan production area in China has entered a general suspension period, and the production
of full latex has gradually stopped.

From the perspective of downstream demand for natural rubber, although there is a slight decline in short-term tire domestic sales and export sales, the decline in operating operations may increase, and demand has slowed down, putting pressure
on natural rubber prices.
However, in the medium and long term, it is expected that in the first quarter of 2021, coinciding with the shutdown period of domestic and foreign production areas, there is a possibility of supply reduction in full latex, and at the same time downstream demand is in a continuous recovery stage, and it is expected that the price of rubber futures 05 contract may remain strong
.