Rubber sharp rise momentum is temporarily lacking, short-term still maintain range volatility

On the macro front, on July 28, international crude oil futures were mixed
.
U.
S.
WTI crude oil futures fell, with the main contract settling at $96.
42 per barrel, down $0.
84 or 0.
86%; Brent crude futures edged higher, with the main contract settling at $101.
83 a barrel, up $0.
16 or 0.
16%.

Against the background of global central bank interest rate hikes, recession expectations may drag down energy demand and supply tightening expectations, and oil prices are stalemated
.

At present, the domestic spot market of Tianjiao has been in the annual trough, for downstream product enterprises, the recent purchase cost of rubber has been reduced, and the order receiving and operating rate of some enterprises have recovered, not excluding seasonal demand off-season and high finished product inventory on the product enterprises to start the impact is still the largest
.

On the supply side, the rainy weather in domestic and foreign production areas has not had a great impact on production, and global supply has entered the highest peak, and the supply pressure is obvious: the latest June report released by ANRPC predicts that global sky rubber production in June is expected to increase by 3.
8% to 1.
113 million tons, an increase of 11.
3% over the previous month; Tianjiao consumption is expected to increase by 5.
8% to 1.
206 million tons, an increase of 1.
3%
from the previous month.
The supply shortage fell to 93,000 tons
this month as global supply and consumption of tianjiao further improved.
On the import and export side, China's imports of natural rubber rings in June and the first half of the year rose
sharply year-on-year.
On the inventory side, inventories increased slightly, but overall inventory pressure was
acceptable.

On the whole, the recent sharp rise in international crude oil prices has significantly driven the raw material market, but the price fell again in the second half of the year, and the demand for commodities is short-term
.
From the annual rise and fall trend, the current domestic Tianjiao spot market has been in the annual trough period, downstream products enterprises procurement costs reduced, procurement enthusiasm has improved, in the medium and long term, pay attention to public health events and automobile consumption policies for the role of the market, the peak supply period needs to focus on the consumption of rubber products inventory and changes in domestic and foreign procurement demand, short-term Tianjiao will still maintain range shock, sharp rise driving force is temporarily lacking
.