Rubber rushed back down, and the center of gravity of the futures price rose again

News: 1.
Thailand's October export volume of tianjiao fell 24% year-on-year and increased by 8%
month-on-month.
2.
Thailand and three Chinese enterprises signed a memorandum of understanding
on rubber procurement.
3.
According to Longzhong Information statistics, the start of semi-steel tire manufacturers last week was 68.
28%, down 0.
53% month-on-month and up 0.
78% year-on-year; The start of all-steel tire manufacturers was 68.
11%, down 0.
08% month-on-month and 5.
39%
year-on-year.

Market quotation: the quotation of 18-year state-owned whole milk (Yunxiang) in the Shanghai market was 12150 (+150) yuan / ton; Vietnam 3L quotation 12050 (+150) yuan / ton; Thailand No.
3 tobacco tablets 14750 (+150) yuan/ton; Yunnan 19 years full latex 12000 (+200) yuan / ton
.
Thai Hat Yai raw material market raw film 40 (+1.
1) baht/kg; Tai San tobacco tablets 41.
63 (+0.
34) baht/kg; field glue 38 (+1) baht/kg; 33.
8 (+0.
3) THB/kg
.
SMR20 Qingdao Free Trade Zone warehouse warehouse price increase of 1410 (+5) US dollars / ton; SIR20 Qingdao Free Trade Zone warehouse warehouse price increase of 1410 (+5) US dollars / ton; STR20 Qingdao Free Trade Zone warehouse warehouse price increase of 1430 (+5) US dollars / ton
.
Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 market price in East China 10600 (+0) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 10800 (+0) yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: RU warehouse receipt 165740 tons, -295200 tons; NR warehouse receipt 0 tons
.

Main positions: RU2001 Top 20 long positions 62535, +892; short positions 85783, -777.

Increase and reduce airspace, reduce
headroom.

Summary: At present, rubber tapping in the domestic Yunnan production area has come to an end, and the price of raw materials has increased
.
Southeast Asia is still in a period of strong supply, and the supply pressure will still be greater
in the future.
Recently, the start of Shandong tire enterprises fell slightly, due to the issuance of orange warning notices for heavy pollution weather in Hebei and Shandong provinces, requiring production enterprises to implement emission reduction work, and it is expected that the start of manufacturers will be stable and weak
.
In terms of the end market, the sales volume of heavy trucks continued to improve, and near the end of the year, the elimination and renewal policy of diesel trucks under China III stimulated the demand for new vehicles in the heavy truck market, which supported the consumption of natural rubber
.
Technically, although the center of gravity of the futures price of Shanghai rubber RU2001 contract and NR2002 contract continues to rise, they are both in a trend of rushing back down, indicating that the upper pressure is large, due to the lack of fundamental substantial bullish support, the high risk is greater, it is recommended to see more and move less, and wait
and see.