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Plate situation: rubber rushed back down, RU2001 rushed back down, and closed up
at the end.
The day closed at 11680, +1.
34% from the previous trading day; Volume 628020, position 338722, +26750, basis -1080, +55, Ru9-January spread -1095, -20
.
NR2002 increased its position, and the futures price closed slightly higher, closing at 9970 on the day, +0.
55% from the previous trading day; Volume 14340, position 24574, +2608, basis -575, -70
.
News: 1.
According to Longzhong Information, the construction of semi-steel tires last week was 63.
03%, up 5.
36% month-on-month and 9.
03% year-on-year; Last week, all-steel tires started 64.
23%, up 17.
76% month-on-month and 11.
73%
year-on-year.
2.
In July 2019, the total import volume of natural rubber (including technical classification, latex, tobacco film, primary shape, mixed rubber and composite rubber) was 437,100 tons, up 32.
72% month-on-month and down 4.
7% year-on-year; The cumulative import volume from January to July 2019 was 2.
8541 million tons, a cumulative decrease of 7.
53%
year-on-year.
3.
According to Longzhong Information statistics, as of August 16, 2019, the total natural rubber general trade inventory in Qingdao was 335,200 tons, down 09,500 tons, or 2.
76%,
month-on-month (July 19, 2019).
Market quotation: the quotation of state-owned whole milk (Yunxiang) in the Shanghai market for 17 years is 10600 (+200) yuan / ton; Vietnam 3L quotation 11050 (+200) yuan / ton; Thailand No.
3 tobacco tablets 13250 (+200) yuan/ton; Yunnan 18 years full latex 10650 (+150) yuan / ton
.
The purchase price of natural rubber fresh glue and dry rubber of Hainan State-owned Rubber Processing Plant is 9700 yuan / ton
.
Thai Hat Yai raw material market raw film 38.
66 (+0) baht/kg; Tai San tobacco tablets 41.
47 (+0) baht/kg; field glue 39.
4 (+0) baht/kg; Cup gum 32.
25 (+0) baht/kg
.
SMR20 Qingdao Free Trade Zone warehouse warehouse price increase of 1315 (-5) US dollars / ton; SIR20 Qingdao Free Trade Zone warehouse warehouse price increase of 1325 (+0) US dollars / ton; STR20 Qingdao Free Trade Zone warehouse warehouse price increase of 1325 (+0) US dollars / ton
.
Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 market price in East China 10400 (+0) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 10700 (+0) yuan / ton
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: RU warehouse receipt 419800 tons, +3110 tons; NR warehouse receipt 0 tons
.
Main positions: RU2001 Top 20 Long Positions 76702, +6919; Short Positions 113874, +10118
.
Long and short increase at the same time, headroom increases
.
Summary: At present, domestic and foreign production areas are in the rubber tapping period, and the supply is gradually increasing
.
Vietnam's exports to China have increased significantly, and inventories will still recover
as imports continue to arrive.
At the same time, the September contract is about to enter the delivery month, and the pressure of warehouse receipts will still suppress
the futures price.
On the demand side, the disaster-stricken enterprises have resumed work one after another, and the start of construction is gradually increasing, which has formed a favorable support for the overall start, but at present, domestic tire consumption is still just demand, and there is no bright spot in demand
.
Overall, the rubber tapping season is still facing an oversupply situation
.
Technically, the RU2001 contract rushed back down, and the momentum of the futures price rebound was insufficient, but the lower 11550 area formed support for the futures price, and it is recommended to trade in the 11550-11800 range in the short term; The NR2002 contract followed the Shanghai rubber rush back down, and it is recommended to trade
in the 9800-10100 range in the short term.