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In recent days, the price of rubber has continued to be weak
.
At present, rubber is in the short market, which is manifested in the plate for increasing positions and falling, reducing positions and rebounding, which is also the overall performance
of the market since the first quarter of this year.
From a fundamental point of view, the domestic production area has entered the cutting season, the phenology is better this year, and the output of Yunnan is expected to increase year-on-year; Hainan cutting is slightly delayed, which supports domestic latex
.
After Thailand's Songkran Festival, northeast Thailand has been cut one after another, overall this year's phenology is normal, it is expected that raw materials will be released steadily in the future, and the purchase price will be under pressure during the week
.
The natural rubber futures 2209 contract is in the peak production season, so there is expected supply pressure
.
In general, rubber supply will be in the peak season, and there is no impact
on production reduction.
At present, under the uncertain situation of epidemic control, downstream tire demand will still be greatly affected, and the flow of goods in the trade link is slow
.
It is expected that rubber demand will still be affected by the repeated impact of the epidemic in the short term, and the pressure of stable economic growth during the year is greater, among which the demand for terminal vehicles is difficult to have bright spots, heavy trucks are also in the downward cycle, while the finished product inventory of tire companies is at a high level in the past three years, and it is expected that the weak situation of tire demand will continue to the third quarter
.
From the perspective of expectations, the market is more looking forward to improving in the second half of the year driven by demand replenishment and macro policies
.
At present, rubber prices are at a low level, external strength and internal weakness state is maintained, and it is expected that prices can gradually stabilize and recover after the epidemic stabilizes, but it is necessary to wait for the inflection point of the epidemic, and short-term Shanghai rubber is expected to continue to be weak
under the expectation of weakening demand and smooth supply of new rubber.
