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Rubber has maintained a stable shock since the beginning of the first month of 2021, and the shock around 15,000 lasted for a week, closing at 15,095 yuan / ton yesterday, and opening at 15,265 yuan / ton on December 2, and the opening showed a significant decline
.
On the supply side, the domestic Yunnan and Hainan production areas have recently stopped cutting, and there is an expectation
of tightening on the domestic supply side.
Thailand's main production areas have entered the peak season of rubber tapping, but recently, heavy to heavy rains have occurred in the south-central Indian Peninsula, the Malay Peninsula, Southeast Asian tropical islands and other places, and the La Niña phenomenon can exacerbate this adverse effect, and rubber tapping operations may continue to be hindered, focusing on whether the incremental supply can be realized
.
In terms of demand, the operating load of all-steel tires and 62.
25% of semi-steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong last week increased month-on-month, and the operating rate of China's semi-steel tires and all-steel tires increased
slightly month-on-month.
As the northern hemisphere enters the winter, the epidemic in Europe and the United States has rebounded widely, in response to the Omicron variant in South Africa, Japan has announced that it will ban all foreign travelers from November 30, and the strict travel ban policy adopted by more countries has a significant impact on overseas travel expectations, and the short-term negative rubber prices
.
In the medium and long term, the gap between the supply and demand of Tianjiao is still there, the ongoing epidemic may give rise to the demand for rubber gloves, the overall inventory is depleted, and the logistics and transportation problems caused by the high freight and insufficient ships on the Southeast Asia route have driven the price of natural rubber up
.
In the short term, subject to the panic of the Omicron variant, and if the vaccine redevelopment cycle is 100 days as Pfizer said, the impact is expected to be longer, and the impact of travel expectations will increase, which will be bearish for rubber prices
.
Short-term bearish, later expected to stabilize
.
In the future, we need to pay attention to whether the incremental supply of major producing countries can be realized, and the extent of the impact of
the epidemic.
