Rubber position increase increment futures price shock closed higher

News: 1, ANRPC: From September to December, global production and consumption of sky rubber will still decline
.
2.
China Association of Automobile Manufacturers: China sold 2.
565 million vehicles in September, up 12.
8%
y/y.
3.
General Administration of Customs: China's rubber imports in September increased by 59% year-on-year to 866,000 tons
.

Market quotation: Shanghai market 18-year state-owned full latex reported 12750 (+150) yuan / ton, Vietnam 3L reported 12250 (+100) yuan / ton, Thailand No.
3 cigarette film reported 17100 (+100) yuan / ton
.
Qingdao market STR20 stock spot reported 1600 (+0) US dollars / ton, Qingdao market STR20 October cargo reported 1580 (+0) US dollars / ton
.
Thai Hat Yai raw material market field glue 51.
7 (+0.
2) baht/kg; Cup gum 38.
1 (+0.
95) baht/kg
.
Domestic Yunnan Xishuangbanna glue into the dry rubber factory 10.
7-11.
1 (+0/+0) yuan / kg, into the latex factory 11.
2 (+0) yuan / kg
.
Hainan state-owned glue into the whole dairy plant to produce whole milk 11800 (+300) yuan / ton, into the concentrated milk factory to produce concentrated milk 14700 (+500) yuan / ton
.
Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber in North China 1502 market price 9300 (+0) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 9100 (+100) yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: RU warehouse receipt 213530 tons, - 1450 tons; NR warehouse receipt 35261 tons, + 202 tons
.

Main positions: RU2101 top 20 long positions 96890, + 1837; short positions 134449, + 3849; long and short increase, net short increase
.

Summary: Since October, there has been a lot of rainfall in the main producing areas at home and abroad, resulting in tight raw materials and sharp rises
.
At present, the weather conditions in Banna are good, and the rubber tapping and collecting work is basically normal; The rainy weather in Hainan production area has a significant impact, it is difficult for rubber farmers to carry out normally, the competition for raw materials is obvious, and the price of glue into the concentrated dairy plant has risen sharply into the whole dairy plant
.
In terms of inventory, as of September 25, the total inventory inside and outside the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 836,800 tons, down
from the previous period.
On the demand side, downstream tire starts are high year-on-year, orders remain stable and good, domestic heavy-duty truck sales in September rose year-on-year and month-on-month, indicating strong tire demand, and excavator sales increased by 50% year-on-year, which also indicates that heavy-duty truck sales are still good
.
On the market, the RU2101 contract increased its position to the upside, short-term attention to the 13500 line of pressure, considering the technical indicators are oversold, short-term recommendation to trade in the 13000-13500 range; The NR2012 contract is recommended to trade
in the 9950-10300 range.