Rubber opens high and goes low The supply pressure is still large in the future

News: 1.
The revised natural rubber futures contract and related implementation rules
in the previous period.
2.
According to the data of the First Commercial Vehicle Network, in October 2019, China's heavy-duty truck market is expected to sell about 90,000 units of various models, an increase of 7.
7% from 83,600 units in September this year and an increase of 12.
4%
from 80,000 units in the same period last year.
3.
According to Longzhong Information statistics, the construction of semi-steel tires started 67.
4% last week, up 0.
52% month-on-month and 1.
10% year-on-year; All steel tires started 67.
70%, up 1.
89% month-on-month and down 6.
30%
year-on-year.

Market quotation: the quotation of 18-year state-owned whole milk (cloud elephant) in the Shanghai market was 11450 (+0) yuan / ton; Vietnam's 3L quotation is 11400 (+0) yuan / ton; Thailand No.
3 tobacco tablets 14100 (+0) yuan/ton; Yunnan 19 years full latex 11350 (+50) yuan / ton
.
Thai Hat Yai raw material market raw film 39.
39 (+1.
62) baht/kg; Tai San tobacco tablets 39.
61 (-0.
29) baht/kg; field glue 38 (+0) baht/kg; 32.
9 (+0.
4) THB/kg
.
SMR20 Qingdao Free Trade Zone warehouse warehouse price increase of 1345 (+15) US dollars / ton; SIR20 Qingdao Free Trade Zone warehouse warehouse price increase of 1345 (+20) US dollars / ton; STR20 Qingdao Free Trade Zone warehouse warehouse price increase of 1355 (+15) US dollars / ton
.
Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 market price in East China 10400 (+0) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 10600 (+0) yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: RU warehouse receipt 427180 tons, +4330 tons; NR warehouse receipt 0 tons
.
Main positions: RU2001 Top 20 long positions 74208, -3666; short positions 108338, -3098
.
Long and short are reduced at the same time, and headroom is increased
.

Summary: At present, domestic and foreign production areas are in the rubber tapping period, although the recent increase in rainfall in Thailand has affected production, but with the arrival of the strong supply period, the future supply pressure is still greater
.
Last week, Shandong tire companies started to pick up slightly, but in autumn and winter, the north was subject to environmental protection regulatory restrictions, and the rebound rate of operating rate may be limited
.
In terms of the end market, the sales volume of heavy trucks continued to improve, and near the end of the year, the elimination and renewal policy of diesel trucks under China III stimulated the demand for new vehicles in the heavy truck market, which supported the consumption of natural rubber
.
Technically, the Shanghai rubber RU2001 contract opens high and goes low, the pressure around 12300 above is obvious, and it is recommended to trade in the 12000-12300 range in the short term; The NR2002 contract is recommended to trade
in the 10100-10300 range for short term.