Rubber opened low and fluctuated, and the futures price closed slightly higher

News: 1.
According to Longzhong Information statistics, as of the week of July 30, the sample operating rate of semi-steel tire manufacturers was 66.
18%, down 0.
31% from the previous month and 3.
09% from the same period last year; The operating rate of the sample of all-steel tire manufacturers was 72.
41%, up 0.
79% month-on-month and 1.
93%
year-on-year.
2.
China Association of Automobile Manufacturers: July vehicle sales are expected to increase by 14.
9%
y/y.
March and July, China's heavy-duty truck market sales increased by nearly 90
% year-on-year.

Market quotation: Shanghai market 18 years state-owned full latex reported 10800 (-150) yuan / ton, Vietnam 3L reported 10950 (+0) yuan / ton, Thailand No.
3 tobacco film reported 13150 (+0) yuan / ton
.
Qingdao market STR20 stock stock reported 1315 (+0) US dollars / ton, Qingdao market STR20 September cargo reported 1325 (+0) US dollars / ton
.
Thai Hat Yai raw material market field glue 42 (+0.
3) baht/kg; Cup glue 32.
4 (+0.
1) baht/kg
.
Domestic Yunnan Xishuangbanna glue into the dry rubber factory 9.
6-9.
9 yuan / kg, into the latex factory 10.
2 yuan / kg
.
Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 in North China Market price 8000 (+100) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 8000 (+100) yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: RU warehouse receipt 224820 tons, + 300 tons; NR warehouse receipts 34,505 tons, - 201 tons
.
Main positions: RU2009 top 20 long positions 72140, + 757; short positions 111887, + 1871; long and short increased, net short increased
.

Summary: From the current fundamental point of view, the current Banna rubber tapping overall tends to normal, but the situation of less raw materials still exists, the competition between processing plants for raw material procurement is obvious, latex diversion part of the dry rubber production capacity, the current alternative planting indicators Puer, Xishuangbanna, Kunming has announced the quota, it is reported that the indicator is more likely to be issued on August 10, when the domestic supply tension is expected to be eased
.
New rubber production capacity released in Thailand, but rainfall may have an impact
on rubber tapping.
In terms of inventory, the inventory inside and outside the Qingdao Free Trade Zone continues to accumulate, and it is difficult to destock rubber during the peak supply season
.
In the downstream, the recent increase in the number of finished product inventory days of tire factories, and the gradual increase in export shipments, which is a good guide for manufacturers to start work, but there are multiple uncertainties in the overseas epidemic, and the growth rate of export market shipments slows down in the short term; There is no obvious increase in the domestic market, and the market just needs to take goods
.
From the terminal point of view, the sales volume of heavy trucks is good, and the performance of tire supporting demand in the later period is expected to be better
driven by infrastructure.
The recent rubber price volatility is more from capital and market sentiment disturbances, RU2101 contract short-term focus on pressure around 12200, it is recommended to trade in the 12000-12200 range, NR2010 contract is recommended to trade
in the 8900-9100 range.