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In the second half of November, China's natural rubber market continued to fluctuate, and the range of upward adjustment near the weekend expanded
.
Among them, the highest price last week was 14360 yuan / ton, the lowest point was 13890 yuan / ton over the weekend, and the maximum amplitude was the weekly decline of 3.
27%.
On the macro front, since entering November, crude oil prices have fallen
sharply.
WTI crude oil fell by 18.
45% monthly, and Brent crude oil fell by 14.
49%; In the short term, the impact of the new virus will continue to ferment, the epidemic in Europe will intensify, oil prices will be in a bearish atmosphere, and the possibility
of continuing to explore the bottom cannot be ruled out.
On the supply side, Southeast Asia was affected by severe weather and frequent rainfall, affecting the supply of local rubber tapping and raw rubber, Thailand continued to issue flood warnings in the south and a new defoliation disease outbreak of rubber trees in Thailand; China's rubber Yunnan production area began to stop cutting one after another, Hainan production area stopped cutting at the end of the year, and affected by the cold wave weather, the cutting date may come earlier
.
On the demand side, the weekly operating rate of tire factories has rebounded; Correspondingly, due to the continuous rise in raw material prices leading to the continuous increase in tire manufacturing costs, soaring freight costs and environmental protection, dual-control power restrictions and production limits led to the decline in production capacity of enterprises, a number of tire companies intensively issued tire price increase notices; From the passenger car sales data, the performance in the third week of November was relatively improved, down 6% from the third week of October, due to the obvious improvement in production in October, the retail recovery in November should be more obvious, but the current recovery rate is still not fast, similar to the state in 2019, and it is also a good performance
.
In terms of inventory, the increase in warehouse receipts in the previous period was obvious, the inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to be destocked, and the purchase of tire factories increased
.
On the whole, many factors have both supported the trend of rubber, as well as the impact of macro factors and the sharp weakening of crude oil and coal on the overall bulk of commodities, and it is expected that natural rubber will maintain a range-bound trend, and the risk
of continued weakening caused by recent external system risks is not ruled out in the short term.
