Rubber long-short scramble Intraday volatility intensifies

News: 1.
According to Longzhong Information, the preliminary value of natural rubber imports in August 2019 was 430,000 tons, down 1.
62% month-on-month and 14.
02% year-on-year, and the cumulative import volume from January to August 2019 was 3.
2915 million tons, down 8.
23%
year-on-year.
In February and July, U.
S.
tire imports from China continued to decline
year-on-year.
3.
Passenger car association: China's retail sales of passenger cars in August decreased by 9.
9%
year-on-year.

Market quotation: the quotation of 17-year state-owned whole milk (Yunxiang) in the Shanghai market is 10950 (+0) yuan / ton; Vietnam's 3L quotation is 11300 (+0) yuan/ton; Thailand No.
3 tobacco tablets 13600 (+0) yuan/ton; Yunnan 18 years full latex 10950 (+0) yuan / ton
.
The purchase price of natural rubber fresh glue and dry rubber of Hainan state-owned rubber processing plant rose to 10,500 yuan / ton
.
Thai Hat Yai raw material market raw film 39.
75 (+0) baht/kg; Tai San tobacco tablets 42.
3 (-0.
58) baht/kg; field glue 39.
9 (+0) baht/kg; Cup gum 33.
5 (-0.
3) baht/kg
.
SMR20 Qingdao Free Trade Zone warehouse warehouse price increase of 1345 (+0) US dollars / ton; SIR20 Qingdao Free Trade Zone warehouse warehouse price increase of 1340 (-10) US dollars / ton; STR20 Qingdao Free Trade Zone warehouse warehouse price increase of 1360 (+0) US dollars / ton
.
Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 market price in East China 10600 (+0) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 11100 (+0) yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: RU warehouse receipt 427400 tons, -30 tons; NR warehouse receipt 0 tons
.
Main positions: RU2001 Top 20 long positions 81779, -2508; short positions 120614, -1484
.
Long and short are reduced at the same time, and headroom is increased
.

Summary: At present, domestic and foreign production areas are in the rubber tapping period, and the supply is gradually increasing
.
On the demand side, in order to ensure the "parade blue" in September, the operating rate in Shandong may decline, and there is still no bright spot on the demand side
.
The recent exchange rate factors have increased the import cost of natural rubber, which in turn has promoted the strength of rubber prices, but the current rubber tapping season is still facing an oversupply situation, and the room for future price rebound is expected to be limited
。 Technically, the RU2001 contract price rebounded downward, long and short scramble at the 12000 mark, there is support around 11900 below, but lack of further upward momentum, the pressure around 12150 above is expected to be difficult to effectively break through, short-term is expected to continue the range wave dynamic trend, it is recommended to trade in the 11850-12150 range; The NR2002 contract stabilized above the 10,000 mark, but the deal was still relatively light, and it is recommended to trade
in the 10,000-10400 range in the short term.