Rubber is under pressure The price center of gravity may shift slightly downward

Since the beginning of this year, U.
S.
bond yields have risen rapidly, causing global investors to worry
.
After entering March, the yield of US 10-year Treasury bonds rose above 1.
6%, high-valuation assets retreated, and the foreign exchange market, commodity market and stock market were also affected
to varying degrees.
Behind the rise in US Treasury yields is the market's strong expectations
for a significant improvement in the global coronavirus pandemic, the recovery of the US economy and rising inflation.

During this year's two sessions, the Chinese government pointed out in its report that this year it is necessary to maintain the continuity, stability and sustainability of macro policies and promote economic operation in a reasonable range
.
In general, with the overseas epidemic under control, the economic outlook improving, and the domestic export situation optimistic, it is expected that China's economy is expected to maintain a positive trend in
the future.

Although Southeast Asian rubber-producing countries are still in the period of suspension, the next generation of Chinese Yunnan and Hainan Tianjiao production areas will usher in a new round of cutting
.
It is shown that according to the normal situation in previous years, Xishuangbanna in the Yunnan production area was gradually cut in late March, and the Hainan production area was gradually cut in early April, and this year's rubber trees are growing well, and it is expected to be cut as scheduled, and the pressure of new supply is gradually highlighted
.

With China's accession to RCEP, the import of natural rubber from Southeast Asia may truly achieve zero tariffs
in the future.
In tire production, the cost of raw materials accounts for about 80%, of which the cost of natural rubber accounts for the largest, accounting for 41.
6%, if it can really achieve zero tariff, it can be described as a major benefit
to China's rubber tire industry.

Under the background of weak macro and rubber market supply side, and good demand, domestic rubber futures faced certain pressure in April, and the price center of gravity may move slightly downward, but the retracement space is relatively limited
.
It is expected that the price of Shanghai rubber futures 2105 contract will remain in the range of 13800-14800 yuan / ton, while the price center of gravity of the main contract of standard rubber futures is expected to remain in the range of 11000-12000 yuan / ton
.