Rubber is still hovering at the bottom, and the medium and long-term trend is oscillating to build a bottom

As of June 15, 2018, the total rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 182,000 tons, an increase of 06,800 tons, or 3.
88%,
from the beginning of June.
Among them, the stock of natural rubber was 69,800 tons, an increase of 66,000 tons over the previous period; the stock of synthetic rubber was 108,500 tons, an increase of 02,000 tons; and the stock of composite rubber remained 03,700 tons
.

The cutting cycle of natural rubber is as long as 6-8 years, and it takes about 10 years to fully produce, and the industry investment shows a long cycle of about 10 years, and the price trend is difficult to reverse
once realized.
As of 2018, there are still a large number of gum trees less than 15 years old in rubber-producing countries, and all of them are high-yield tree species planted after 2000, which has greater supply release potential, and theoretically this round of raw material release peak will continue to about 2021
.

The Tariff Commission of the State Council has decided to apply the Second Amendment to the Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement (Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement) treaty rates
to imports originating in Bangladesh, India, Laos, Sri Lanka and South Korea from July 1, 2018.
Among them, it involves changes
in the tariff number agreement tax rates for some natural rubber and carbon black products.
The treaty tax rate on natural rubber in smoke film and other primary shapes was reduced from 20% to 17%.

Laos, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are not traditional rubber producers, and the two rubber grades adjusted by the "Amendment" account for 8% of the total imports, and the impact on rubber import costs is relatively limited
.
The carbon black treaty tax rate was reduced from 5.
5% to 3.
6%, mainly in South Korea and India
.
In the past three years, carbon black import prices have bottomed out in different ranges, of which the average price of carbon black imported from South Korea in 2017 was 1805.
9 US dollars / ton, and the average price of carbon black imported from India was 2219.
86 US dollars / ton
.
After the tariff adjustment, South Korea and India will reduce the cost per ton of carbon black imports by $34.
3 and $42.
2, respectively
.
The medium and long-term trend of rubber is volatile and bottomed, and it is recommended to rise sharply and do not chase, and sell short
at the high.

To sum up, the current supply of foreign production areas continues to be stable, if there is no major bearishness, such as large-scale natural disasters, pests and other factors, the overall supply will remain stable upward, but my domestic current natural rubber market downstream demand is limited, the reality of domestic inventory continues to rise the market pressure, for this is expected in the case of large macro support, the later natural rubber market price may be dragged by fundamentals, towards the downward channel, testing the sound field cost level
.