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Natural rubber futures in September generally rose sharply and then pulled back and continued to fluctuate in a small range, with the main force of 13270 yuan / ton on the 1st, the highest point in the middle of the month of nearly 13500 yuan / ton, and the main force of 13135 yuan / ton on the 30th, down about 1% in the month
.
In September, the supply of natural rubber at home and abroad was strong, and the price of glue did not change much, Thai glue was about 45.
5-45.
7 baht / kg, Hainan glue was about 11,000 yuan / ton; The arrival volume of port has increased, the circulation of spot goods is smooth, and there are still goods arriving at the port after the holiday, spot inventory has accumulated and orders have been extended to the port; Although the operating rate of downstream tire enterprises has rebounded slightly during the month, due to the weak demand orders and sufficient inventory in the factory, the new procurement volume has not increased significantly, and the pre-holiday procurement demand is not as good as the "Golden Nine" in previous years; Although there were typhoons in the production area within the month, the duration was short, the price of rubber fluctuated rapidly, and the overall natural rubber market fluctuated
slightly this month.
On the macro front, international crude oil futures continued to plunge in late September, falling nearly 10% in a single day, the market's concerns about the economic downturn are intensifying, and oil prices have fallen endlessly against the background of continued geopolitical deterioration, and WTI has fallen by more than 20%
since the third quarter.
The analysis believes that in the future, oil prices will still seek a balance between supply shortage and demand recession expectations, and the superposition of factors such as interest rate hikes and geopolitical tensions will aggravate the volatility of the oil market
.
In the second half of the natural rubber supply continued to be strong, sufficient inventory and imports continued to increase, downstream new purchases before the holiday by tire orders weak and spot inventory sufficient, the market in the second half of the natural rubber procurement demand did not show the previous "Golden Nine" peak season scene, natural rubber in the month although there was a single day of small rise, but the market did not continue, quickly declined, the market before the holiday stabilized
.
Future market forecast: Considering the recent downstream tire orders and procurement demand, without the impact of extreme weather and the premise of no improvement in downstream demand, the possibility of a sharp upward movement of natural rubber is unlikely, and the probability will remain range-bound
.
