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In the first quarter, rubber as a whole showed a unilateral downward trend
.
In the second half of 19, due to the weather in the main producing areas is not conducive to rubber tapping, the market generally expects production to decline, and rubber prices continue to rebound
.
By the beginning of 20 years, rubber prices had rebounded to the upper edge
of the long-term shock range.
However, unexpectedly, the outbreak of the new crown epidemic years later, the epidemic first led to a decline in the production of complete vehicles and parts in China, and then led to the global automobile production being affected, and the US, Europe and Japan car companies stopped production
.
In mid-to-late March, the epidemic center shifted from China to Europe and the United States, the downward pressure on the global economy strengthened, and rubber consumption was expected to fall
sharply.
Global panic spread, the stock market hit hard, crude oil plummeted, and the rubber market fell all the way down
.
As of April 3, the Shanghai rubber 09 contract closed at 9670 yuan / ton, down 3465 yuan / ton in the first quarter, down 26.
38%.
The main contract of INE20 rubber closed at 7665 yuan / ton, down 3125 yuan / ton in the first quarter, down 28.
96%.
In mid-to-late March, the epidemic spread to Southeast Asian production areas, and by the end of March, the epidemic in Southeast Asian countries led by India showed an outbreak trend, and raw material prices began to decline
.
As of April 3, the price of Thai Hat Yai gum was 36.
55 baht/kg, down 2.
35 baht/kg in the first quarter, down 6.
04%.
Although rubber imports are affected by the transportation of Southeast Asian production areas, domestic inventories remain high, and domestic spot prices have also fallen significantly
.
As of April 3, the SMR20 quotation in the bonded area was 1080 US dollars / ton, a cumulative decline of 380 US dollars / ton in the first quarter, a decrease of 26.
03%; STR20 quoted 1090 US dollars / ton, down 380 US dollars / ton in the first quarter, down 25.
85%; SIR20 quoted $1080/ton, down $380/ton in the first quarter, down 26.
03%.
Yunnan state-owned full latex 9350 yuan / ton, a cumulative decrease of 2900 yuan / ton in the first quarter, a decrease of 23.
67%; Thailand's RSS3 quotation was 11750 yuan / ton, down 2850 yuan / ton in the first quarter, an increase of 19.
52%; Vietnam's 3L quotation was 9750 yuan / ton, down 2650 yuan / ton in the first quarter, down 21.
37%.
Since mid-March, the outbreak of the epidemic in Southeast Asian countries, Singapore, Malaysia, India and Thailand have taken measures to restrict the movement of people, especially the surge in the epidemic in India, which may become a new epidemic center
after Europe and the United States.
If the outbreak spreads in Southeast Asian regions, it could lead to a backward delay in the April-May harvest season, and a more serious impact could be a decline
in output.
In January-February 2020, ANRPC member countries' production fell by 7.
8% year-on-year, mainly due to a decline in production in Thailand and a small increase in Indonesia during January, mainly due to a low
base at the beginning of 2019.
In the second quarter, the global supply of tianjiao will gradually increase, and China will normally enter the cutting period in mid-to-late March, but due to the outbreak of the new crown epidemic and the occurrence of certain diseases and pests in Yunnan, the cutting period will be postponed to mid-to-early
April.
Thailand is also expected to experience cutting delays this year, mainly due to the low precipitation of continuous cutting since January this year and the low price of glue and cup glue
.
Looking ahead, due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in the first quarter, global automobile production slowed down, rubber consumption fell sharply, and rubber prices fell to a historical low dragged down by the collapse of international oil prices
.
From the perspective of the development of the global epidemic, the epidemic in the United States is still growing rapidly, the epidemic situation in Japan is not optimistic, the growth rate in Europe sometimes declines but does not form a trend, and the final consumer demand will still be suppressed
.
Southeast Asian countries have an outbreak trend, rubber consumption and output may weaken at the same time, may help rubber prices bottom rebound, Yunnan production area weather is arid, pay attention to the progress of
rubber tapping in various countries.
On the whole, pay attention to the development of the epidemic in the production and marketing areas, there is a bottom rebound momentum in the rubber price, and you can arrange more orders
as appropriate.
