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After entering the second quarter, with the resumption of work and production of domestic enterprises, the start of the infrastructure industry has made the terminal demand continue to recover, coupled with the darkest moment of the foreign epidemic, the monetary policy and fiscal policy of central banks are loose, Europe, the United States and other economic restarts, macro policy warm wind is frequent, domestic counter-cyclical policies continue to exert force, and rubber prices bottom out
under the improvement of demand margin.
However, due to the fact that the terminal export market has not fully recovered, even if the cutting process of rubber trees in domestic and foreign production areas is slow due to drought and powdery mildew, the pressure of destocking inside and outside the Qingdao Free Trade Zone is still heavy, so that the rebound of rubber prices is limited and the range fluctuation
is maintained.
The domestic tianjiao production area is slow to cut, the release of raw materials is limited, and the inventory of rubber processing plants is limited, and some private rubber factories in the production area rush to buy raw materials, which promotes the purchase price of glue
.
In June, there is a certain tight expectation of new rubber, and the shipments of foreign factories, the expected arrival of domestic ports and the expected storage volume of imported rubber warehouses have all decreased to a certain extent, and it is expected that China's imports in June will maintain a year-on-month decline
.
Considering the high domestic natural rubber stocks, the preliminary calculation of domestic rubber stocks can be used for 3.
5 months, so even if imports decline, the substantial impact on domestic supply is small
.
In the second half of the year, as the world's main producing areas enter the peak supply season, it is expected that imports are expected to recover
under the gradual recovery of demand.
However, the pressure of oversupply of fundamentals and the pressure of high inventory continue to suppress the rebound height of Shanghai rubber, and rubber prices do not have the conditions for a sharp rise for the time being, and it is expected to maintain the bottom market in the second half of the year
.
Pay attention to the changes in the epidemic situation and weather conditions in rubber-producing countries, as well as the epidemic development
of automobile consuming countries such as the United States, Brazil, and Russia.
