Rubber futures are weak to explore The supply and demand structure is still weak

Systemic risks still exist, and although the latest domestic economic data for July showed a stable trend overall, the growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods showed signs
of slowing down again.
In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China were 3,587 billion yuan, an increase of 2.
7% year-on-year, down 0.
4 percentage points
from the previous month.
From January to July, the total retail sales of consumer goods 246302 billion yuan, down 0.
2%
year-on-year.
At present, the domestic epidemic situation is still repeated, which has an adverse impact on residents' car consumption, so it remains to be seen whether the demand for rubber market can be
further improved.
At the same time, the Fed minutes are slightly dovish, but in the run-up to the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting, the market is still strong in the market concern that the Fed will raise interest rates by 75 basis points in September, and investors want more information from this meeting, which will undoubtedly weaken the confidence of the short-term market to go long
.

The supply pressure of the rubber market is increasing unabated, and it is currently in the peak season of rubber production in Southeast Asian rubber-producing countries and the main production areas of China's tianjiao, and the rubber production will show a trend of increasing month by month in the next 2-3 months
.
According to the latest data from the Association of Tianjiao Producing Countries (ANRPC), the total output of member countries of the Association of Tianjiao Producing Countries from January to June reached 5.
2067 million tons, a slight increase of 5.
10% over the same period last year, and a slight increase of 58,100 tons over the average value of the past five years
.
Among them, the output of member countries of the Association of Tianjiao Producing Countries in June was 930,500 tons, a slight increase of 3.
34% over the same period last year, and a slight increase of 3.
82%
over the average value of the past five years 。 According to the data released by the Association of Tianjiao Producing Countries (ANRPC) in the past five years, from 2017 to 2021, the average output of the member countries of the organization reached 1.
0506 million tons in July, 1.
0615 million tons in August, 1.
0853 million tons in September, and 1.
1003 million tons in October, an increase of 17.
22%, 18.
43%, 21.
09% and 22.
76%
respectively from the average output of 896,300 tons in June.

The output of the organization's member countries from July to October 2022 is expected to reach 1.
0907 million tons, 1.
102 million tons, 1.
1267 million tons and 1.
1423 million tons
to assess the increase and decrease changes.
Overall, in the absence of extreme weather disturbances, the supply pressure in the later period has increased
.

The improvement of downstream demand remains to be observed, although the domestic downstream car market demand has improved in June and July, but at the end of May, the preferential policy of halving the purchase tax of passenger cars introduced by the state began to show signs of diminishing marginal effect, and it remains to be seen
whether the future market can continue to exert force under the "golden nine silver ten".
China's automobile production and sales in July reached 2.
455 million units and 2.
42 million units, respectively, up 31.
5% and 29.
7% y/y, but down 1.
8% and 3.
3%
m/m.
From January to July, vehicle production and sales reached 14.
571 million units and 14.
477 million units, respectively, with production up 0.
8% y/y and sales down 2.
0%.

From this point of view, the demand terminal sales of the car market are still weak
.
In the tire industry, in the week of August 19, the operating load of all-steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong was 56.
8%, down 4.
53 percentage points
from the same period last year.

The operating load of semi-steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 61.
30%, an increase of 4.
01 percentage points
over the same period last year.
Overall, the downstream demand of the rubber market still shows no signs of
improvement.

In the short term, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures market is still facing the test of "macro risk", "increased supply pressure" and "lack of sustainability in demand improvement", and it is expected that the Shanghai rubber 2301 contract will still operate
in a weak oscillation pattern.