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In the week before May Day, the price of natural rubber fell again in the face of weak fundamentals and market concerns about the epidemic, and the RU main contract touched as low as 12,510 yuan / ton, a new low
of about 7 months for the main contract.
However, the rubber price showed some support at 12,500 yuan / ton, and on the last trading day before the holiday, the price rebounded and finally closed at 12,915 yuan / ton
.
At present, the overall situation of the epidemic situation in the country has improved, and the number of new confirmed cases has shown a downward trend
.
However, the epidemic situation in Shanghai and Beijing is still critical, and the epidemic situation needs to be closely watched
after the movement of personnel during the May Day holiday.
From the perspective of the space below, in addition to the support of inventory on rubber prices, lower price levels and basis will also form resistance
to the further downward movement of rubber prices.
If the epidemic can continue to be effectively controlled before the holiday, then rubber demand after the holiday will be boosted to a certain extent, but the fundamentals of rubber are weak, and the supply will gradually increase in May, and the recovery of the demand side will not happen overnight
.
Therefore, even if the market is good after the holiday, we should remain cautiously optimistic
.
Rubber demand drags rubber prices down, although it is difficult to get rubber out of decline by relying on low inventory levels alone, but rubber inventories that have been at a low level increase the resistance to the downward trend of rubber prices, and if inventories continue to remain low, if demand starts later, it will help the rebound
of rubber prices.
In the week of April 22, the social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 295,900 tons, down 287,200 tons from the same period last year and down 18,100 tons
week-on-week.
At present, the overall situation of the epidemic situation in the country has improved, and the number of new confirmed cases has shown a downward trend
.
However, the epidemic situation in Shanghai and the background is still critical, and the epidemic situation needs to be closely watched
after the movement of personnel during the May Day holiday.
From the perspective of the space below, in addition to the support of inventory on rubber prices, lower price levels and basis will also form resistance
to the further downward movement of rubber prices.
If the epidemic can continue to be effectively controlled before the holiday, then rubber demand after the holiday will be boosted to a certain extent, but the fundamentals of rubber are weak, and the supply will gradually increase in May, and the recovery of the demand side will not happen overnight
.
Therefore, even if the market is good after the holiday, we should remain cautiously optimistic
.
