Rubber downward recovery Future supply pressure is still large

News: 1.
The Passenger Association predicts that the domestic automobile market will grow by 1%
in 2020.
2.
Sino-bus Tire joint venture plant project signed
.
3.
According to Longzhong information statistics, the operating rate of semi-steel tire manufacturers last week was 68.
81%, up 1.
05% month-on-month and 1.
31% year-on-year; The operating rate of all-steel tire manufacturers was 68.
19%, up 0.
95% month-on-month and down 5.
31%
year-on-year.

。

Market quotation: the quotation of 18-year state-owned whole milk (Yunxiang) in the Shanghai market is 11450 (+150) yuan / ton; Vietnam 3L quotation 11350 (+50) yuan / ton; Thai No.
3 tobacco tablets 14100 (+150) yuan/ton; Yunnan 19 years full latex 11350 (+0) yuan / ton
.
Thai Hat Yai raw material market raw film 39.
19 (+0.
1) baht/kg; Tai San Tobacco Tablets 39.
99 (+0.
1) THB/kg; field glue 37.
4 (-0.
6) baht/kg; 32.
5 (+0) THB/kg
.
SMR20 Qingdao Free Trade Zone warehouse warehouse price increase of 1355 (+10) US dollars / ton; SIR20 Qingdao Free Trade Zone warehouse warehouse price increase of 1350 (+0) US dollars / ton; STR20 Qingdao Free Trade Zone warehouse warehouse price increase of 1365 (+10) US dollars / ton
.
Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 market price in East China 10600 (+0) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 10800 (+0) yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: RU warehouse receipt 459590 tons, +1870 tons; NR warehouse receipt 0 tons
.
Main positions: RU2001 top 20 long positions 62356, -632; short positions 92546, -1306
.
Long and short are reduced together, and headroom is reduced
.

Summary: At present, domestic and foreign production areas are in the rubber tapping period, and with the arrival of the strong supply period, the future supply pressure is still large
.
Recently, the start of Shandong tire enterprises has increased slightly, as export orders remain active, and at the same time, in order to impact the annual production task, appropriate production increase to support a slight increase
in starts.
However, it is currently in the stage of strict environmental protection inspection in autumn and winter, and the start of enterprise construction will be affected
from time to time.
In terms of the end market, the sales volume of heavy trucks continued to improve, and near the end of the year, the elimination and renewal policy of diesel trucks under China III stimulated the demand for new vehicles in the heavy truck market, which supported the consumption of natural rubber
.
Technically, the Shanghai rubber RU2001 contract reduced its position to close higher, and the market paid attention to the pressure around 12300 above, and traded in the 12050-12300 range in the short term; The NR2002 contract is recommended to trade
in the 10200-10400 range for short term.