Rubber downward rebound, futures prices closed strongly

News: 1.
According to Longzhong Information statistics, as of the week of July 30, the sample operating rate of semi-steel tire manufacturers was 66.
18%, down 0.
31% from the previous month and 3.
09% from the same period last year; The operating rate of the sample of all-steel tire manufacturers was 72.
41%, up 0.
79% month-on-month and 1.
93%
year-on-year.
2.
China Association of Automobile Manufacturers: July vehicle sales are expected to increase by 14.
9%
y/y.
March and July, China's heavy-duty truck market sales increased by nearly 90
% year-on-year.

Market quotation: Shanghai market 18-year state-owned full latex reported 10850 (+50) yuan / ton, Vietnam 3L reported 10950 (+0) yuan / ton, Thailand No.
3 tobacco film reported 13250 (+100) yuan / ton
.
Qingdao market STR20 stock spot reported 1330 (+15) US dollars / ton, Qingdao market STR20 September cargo reported 1340 (+15) US dollars / ton
.
Field glue in Hat Yai raw material market in Thailand 42.
2 (+0.
2) baht/kg; Cup gum 32.
5 (+0.
1) baht/kg
.
Domestic Yunnan Xishuangbanna glue into the dry rubber factory 9.
6-9.
9 yuan / kg, into the latex factory 10.
2 yuan / kg
.
Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 in North China Market price 8000 (+0) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 8000 (+0) yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: RU warehouse receipt 224810 tons, -10 tons; NR warehouse receipts 33,900 tons, -605 tons
.

Main positions: RU2101 top 20 long positions 83719, +12175; short positions 125432, +14072; long and short increased, net short increased
.

Summary: From the current fundamental point of view, the current Banna rubber tapping overall tends to normal, but the lack of raw materials still exists, the competition between processing plants for raw material procurement is obvious, the current alternative planting indicators Puer, Xishuangbanna, Kunming has announced quotas, it is reported that the index issuance time may be postponed to August 20 after
.
The production capacity of new rubber in Southeast Asia was released, but Thailand's output did not reach the peak
due to the tight situation of glue workers.
In terms of inventory, as of the end of July, the inventory inside and outside the Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to accumulate, and it was difficult to destocking rubber during the supply season
.
In the downstream, the recent increase in the number of finished product inventory days of tire factories, and the gradual increase in export shipments, which is a good guide for manufacturers to start work, but there are multiple uncertainties in the overseas epidemic, and the growth rate of export market shipments slows down in the short term; There is no obvious increase in the domestic market, and the market just needs to take goods
.
From the terminal point of view, the sales volume of heavy trucks is good, and the performance of tire supporting demand in the later period is expected to be better
driven by infrastructure.
The recent fluctuation of rubber prices is more from the disturbance of capital and market sentiment, the RU2101 contract is upward, short-term attention to the pressure around 12500, cautious chasing up; The NR2010 contract is recommended to be mainly
wait-and-see for the time being.