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Rubber downward action can weaken If demand picks up, there may be rebound momentum

 Last Update: 2022-12-25
 Source: Internet
 Author: User

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On Thursday, the main force of rubber RU closed at 12855 yuan / ton, the mixed rubber quotation was 11550 yuan / ton (-50), and the basis of the main contract was -905 yuan / ton (+15); The top 20 main long positions are 78819 (-2491), short positions 100134 (-358), and net short positions are 21315 (+2133).

NR main closing price 10260 (-15) yuan / ton, Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai standard rubber 1525 (-10) US dollars / ton, Malaysian standard rubber 1520 US dollars / ton (-10), Indonesian standard rubber 1585 (-10) US dollars / ton
.

rubber

As of August 12: total stock on the exchange 283584 (+2713), exchange warehouse receipt 254780 (-710).

Raw materials: raw film 48.
5 (0), cup glue 45.
25 (+0.
25), glue 47.
3 (+0.
3), tobacco film 50.
60 (+0.
01).

As of August 11, the domestic all-steel tire operating rate was 59.
35% (+2.
63%), and the domestic semi-steel tire operating rate was 64.
44% (+0.
43%)
.

Viewpoint: In August, the domestic downstream was generally in the off-season, making the recovery of tire demand slow, and the overall domestic accumulation in the near future was mainly small, but due to the impact of rainfall, the output of raw materials in the main producing areas was limited, and the domestic arrival volume did not show a significant increase, and the pressure on the supply side has not yet appeared
.
After the end of the rainy season at home and abroad in August, the supply growth rate is expected to increase, and it is expected that the price of raw materials at home and abroad will still have room
to fall.
At present, due to the end of the RU delivery logic, the short-term pressure has been eased, and the price can continue to weaken at the absolute low price
.
If domestic demand picks up significantly in September and rubber prices have rebound momentum, otherwise the easing pattern will continue under the gradual increase in supply pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see
for the time being.

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