Rubber downside recovery Supply pressure is still worth paying attention to

News: 1.
The State Council: Encourage local governments to optimize the management of
motor vehicle purchase restrictions.
2.
Thailand's exports of tianjiao in November continued to increase month-on-month, down 20%
year-on-year.
3.
According to Longzhong Information statistics, the operating rate of semi-steel tire manufacturers last week was 65.
29%, down 1.
94% month-on-month and 0.
61% year-on-year; The operating rate of all-steel tire manufacturers was 64.
40%, down 1.
11% month-on-month and 6.
05%
year-on-year.

Market quotation: the quotation of 18-year state-owned whole milk (Yunxiang) in the Shanghai market is 11950 (-50) yuan / ton; Vietnam 3L quotation 12100 (-50) yuan / ton; Thailand No.
3 tobacco tablets 14300 (+0) yuan/ton; Yunnan 19 years full latex 12100 (-100) yuan / ton
.
Thai Hat Yai raw material market raw film 39.
9 (-0.
25) baht/kg; Tai San tobacco tablets 41.
62 (-0.
23) baht/kg; field glue 37.
2 (-1.
3) baht/kg; 34.
5 (-0.
2) THB/kg
.
SMR20 Qingdao Free Trade Zone warehouse warehouse price increase of 1460 (+10) US dollars / ton; SIR20 Qingdao Free Trade Zone warehouse warehouse price increase of 1455 (+0) US dollars / ton; STR20 Qingdao Free Trade Zone warehouse warehouse price increase of 1470 (+10) US dollars / ton
.
Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 market price in East China is 11000 (+0) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 10800 (-200) yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: RU warehouse receipt 224050 tons, +300 tons; NR warehouse receipt 605 tons, +0 tons
.

Main positions: RU2005 top 20 long positions 97857, +78; short positions 144664, -2463; increase and decrease short, net space decrease.

NR2003 Top 20 Long Positions 18515, -1940; Short Positions 18956, -2035
.

Summary: At present, the domestic Yunnan production area has entered the suspension period, and the Hainan production area is also about to stop cutting, while Southeast Asia is still in the period of strong supply, and the supply pressure is still worth paying attention to
.
Affected by environmental factors, some tire manufacturers in Shandong are limited in operation, the operating rate has decreased month-on-month, and it is currently in the autumn and winter environmental protection strict inspection stage, the start of enterprises will be affected from time to time, coupled with the weak demand, traders are more cautious in purchasing, manufacturers have reduced orders, and it is difficult to improve the starting space
.
In terms of the end market, the sales volume of heavy trucks continued to improve, and near the end of the year, the elimination and renewal policy of diesel trucks under China III stimulated the demand for new vehicles in the heavy truck market, which supported the consumption of natural rubber
.
RU2005 contract is under pressure above the 12900 line, short-term focus on the support around 12550 below, it is recommended to trade in the 12550-12900 range; The NR2003 contract is recommended to trade
in the 10650-10850 range for short term.