Rubber demand is still difficult to show obvious signs of optimism

Natural rubber prices fell 9.
48%
in March.
First of all, the demand for tire enterprises has decreased significantly: in March, tire domestic enterprises resumed work and production steadily, at first the domestic epidemic control situation was good, the enterprise mentality was positive, and then the rapid spread of foreign countries, the impact on downstream orders was huge, tire exports were blocked, and the production of tire companies was less than expected
.

Secondly, the downward cost of alternative rubber puts pressure on tianjiao: the current collapse of international crude oil has a very direct impact on the commodities of its chemical industry chain, natural rubber due to the decline in crude oil led to a decline in butadiene costs, synthetic rubber costs have been lowered, because some synthetic rubber can replace natural rubber in tire factory production, resulting in a sluggish natural rubber market
.

Finally, because natural rubber is currently in the suspension period, coupled with the control measures implemented by Southeast Asian rubber-producing countries in response to the new crown pneumonia epidemic, in the short term, from supply to domestic natural rubber prices to form a certain support, alleviating the decline of natural rubber
.

In March, the prices of cis-butadiene rubber and styrene-butadiene rubber fell by 19.
29% and 19.
08%
respectively.
In terms of raw materials: affected by crude oil, the price of cis-butadiene and styrene-butadiene rubber raw materials fell sharply, and the cost side dragged down the synthetic rubber market
.
The price of raw material butadiene in March fell from 6223 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 5127 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 17.
61% overall; The price of styrene in March fell from 6700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 4650 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 30.
60%
overall.
Supply and demand side: the downstream tire industry exports are blocked and the start is sluggish, the purchase of synthetic rubber is light, and the demand side strongly suppresses the synthetic rubber market
.

In the future, the trend of the rubber and plastic market in April still depends on the two major aspects
of raw materials and demand.
From the perspective of raw materials, the source of the entire petrochemical industry chain - crude oil has already fallen below the US shale oil cost line after the plunge since mid-February, and has also fallen to the Russian crude oil cost line, and the probability of falling again is not too great, and it is expected that the negative impact of the later cost on the rubber and plastic market will gradually weaken; From the demand side, although the domestic resumption of work and production continues to increase, but the impact of the epidemic abroad is still serious, except for the export of epidemic prevention materials may continue to be blocked, which is not conducive to the recovery of domestic export enterprises and export product industry chain, and the demand for rubber and plastics market in April is still difficult to show obvious signs
of optimism.
Overall, if crude oil does not rise sharply, the rubber and plastics market will still be in the bottom shock stage
in April.