Rubber contracts increase and shrink futures prices fluctuate at high levels

News: 1.
Bureau of Statistics: China's September tire production increased by 15.
4%
year-on-year.
2.
China Association of Automobile Manufacturers: China sold 2.
565 million vehicles in September, up 12.
8%
y/y.
3.
General Administration of Customs: China's rubber imports in September increased by 59% year-on-year to 866,000 tons
.

Market quotation: Shanghai market 18-year state-owned full latex reported 14150 (-50) yuan / ton, Vietnam 3L reported 13750 (-50) yuan / ton, Thailand No.
3 tobacco film reported 18500 (-50) yuan / ton
.
Qingdao market STR20 stock spot reported 1680 (+0) US dollars / ton, Qingdao market STR20 October cargo reported 1675 (+0) US dollars / ton
.
Thailand Hat Yai raw material market field glue 61 (+2) baht/kg; Cup glue 40.
7 (+0.
4) baht/kg
.
Domestic Yunnan Xishuangbanna glue into the dry rubber factory 11.
5-12 (+0/0) yuan/kg, into the latex factory 13 (+0) yuan/kg
.
Hainan state-owned glue into the whole dairy plant to produce whole milk 13500 (+1000) yuan / ton, into the concentrated milk factory to produce concentrated milk 17200 (+2000) yuan / ton
.
Synthetic rubber: North China Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 market price 10800 (+600) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 10200 (+500) yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: RU warehouse receipt 221350 tons, + 630 tons; NR warehouse receipts 35,311 tons, - 756 tons
.

Main positions: RU2101 Top 20 Long Positions 116663, +4621; Short Positions 143603, +803; Long and Short Increase, Net Margin Decrease
.

Summary: Recently, the rainfall in the main producing areas at home and abroad has led to the tightness of raw materials and the sharp rise in prices
.
At present, the weather conditions in Banna are good, and the rubber tapping and collecting work is basically normal; The rainy weather in Hainan production area has a significant impact, rubber farmers are difficult to carry out normally, raw material competition is obvious, the price of glue into the concentrated dairy plant has risen sharply into the whole dairy plant, and under the new typhoon warning, the shortage of raw materials has increased
.
In terms of inventory, although the inventory inside and outside the Qingdao Free Trade Zone has decreased slightly, the total is still more than 800,000 tons, and the pressure on the inventory outside the zone is significant
.
On the demand side, the operating rate of tire factories is significantly higher than the same period last year, orders remain stable and good, and domestic heavy-duty truck sales increase year-on-year and month-on-month to show strong tire demand
.
On the market, the RU2101 contract price is under great pressure near the 10,000 5 mark, and the risk accumulation under the short-term sharp rise, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being; The NR2012 contract is recommended to trade
in the 10500-11000 range.