Rubber contracts fall under pressure and short-term shock ideas are treated

News: 1.
According to Longzhong Information statistics, as of the week of August 6, the operating rate of domestic semi-steel tire manufacturers was 65.
1%, down 1.
08% month-on-month and 3.
44% year-on-year; The operating rate of all-steel tire manufacturers was 72.
8%, up 0.
39% month-on-month and 3.
11%
year-on-year.
2.
Indonesia's exports of sky rubber and mixed rubber rose for
two consecutive months in July.
3.
ANRPC: Global demand for natural rubber will rebound
.

Market quotation: Shanghai market 18 years state-owned full latex reported 11100 (-200) yuan / ton, Vietnam 3L reported 11150 (-50) yuan / ton, Thailand No.
3 tobacco film reported 13450 (-200) yuan / ton
.
Qingdao market STR20 stock spot reported 1380 (+20) US dollars / ton, Qingdao market STR20 August cargo reported 1390 (+20) US dollars / ton
.
Thai Hat Yai raw material market field glue 42.
7 (+0.
5) baht/kg; Cup gum 33.
6 (+1.
1) baht/kg
.
Domestic Yunnan Xishuangbanna glue into the dry rubber factory 9.
6-10 yuan / kg, into the latex factory 10.
2 yuan / kg
.
Synthetic rubber: Qilu petrochemical styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 in North China Market price 8000 (+0) yuan / ton; The market price of cis-butadiene rubber is 8000 (+0) yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: RU warehouse receipt 225710 tons, + 1030 tons; NR warehouse receipt 35110 tons, + 706 tons
.

Main positions: RU2101 top 20 long positions 91398, +275; short positions 139176, + 3579; long and short increased, net short increased
.

Summary: From the current fundamental point of view, the current Banna rainfall is too much, which temporarily affects rubber tapping; The weather in Hainan production area has improved, the output of raw materials has slowly increased, and the amount of full latex is expected to
increase.
At present, the situation of small raw materials still exists, and the competition for raw material procurement between processing plants is obvious, and the quotas of alternative planting indicators Puer, Xishuangbanna and Kunming have been announced, but it is reported that the time of issuing the indicators may be delayed
.
The production capacity of new rubber in Southeast Asia was released, but Thailand's output did not reach the peak
due to the tight situation of glue workers.
In terms of inventory, as of the end of July, the inventory inside and outside the Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to accumulate, and it was difficult to destocking rubber during the supply season
.
In the downstream, the supporting market performed better, but the replacement market was slightly weak; There are still many uncertainties in export sales due to the overseas epidemic, and the growth rate of shipments is expected to gradually slow down
.
From the terminal point of view, the sales volume of heavy trucks is good, and the performance of tire supporting demand in the later period is expected to be better
driven by infrastructure.
The recent fluctuation of rubber prices is more from the disturbance of funds and market sentiment, the RU2101 contract is under pressure to fall, short-term attention to the support around 12350, it is recommended to treat the shock idea; The NR2010 contract is recommended to be mainly
wait-and-see for the time being.