Risk sentiment improved The trend of Shanghai copper continued to be volatile

On the macro front, the US Federal Reserve's January interest rate meeting is approaching, and hawkish expectations are widely held, although the upward momentum of the US dollar index has been suppressed by the recent poor performance of US employment data
.
The People's Bank of China lowered the LPR, releasing a strong easing signal, which improved market risk sentiment
.

In terms of fundamentals, the supply of upstream copper ore showed a growth trend, copper mine supply improved compared with the previous period, and crude copper imports gradually recovered, and the supply of raw materials for smelters was basically sufficient; At the end of the year, refinery scheduling enthusiasm is high, and refined copper production is expected to remain high
.

In terms of stocks, as of January 20, 2022, LME copper stocks were 98,725 tons, and warehouse receipts were written off 17,350 tons
.
On the 19th, COMEX copper stocks were 79,694 tons
.

Consumption weakened before the Spring Festival downstream, coupled with the sharp rise in copper prices to curb demand, inventory dematerialization will begin to slow down, and there is resistance
above copper prices.
In the short term, on the one hand, after the hawkish remarks released in the Fed minutes, the dollar index showed an inflection point, once falling below the 95 mark, providing an opportunity for non-ferrous metals to rise; On the other hand, the colored sector performed strongly overall, and bullish sentiment was boosted, attracting capital injections
.
Looking ahead to next week, copper prices are expected to be volatile and risk sentiment is expected to improve, but the contradiction between supply and demand is not obvious
.