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On Friday, Shanghai aluminum rose overnight, the rise once expanded above 2%, and maintained a strong shock pattern during the day, closing up 1.
96%.
The market atmosphere is warm, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has declined, and Shanghai aluminum is running
strongly in the short term.
Since April, aluminum prices at home and abroad have fallen, but they still maintain a pattern of strong foreign and weak inside, domestic aluminum exports remain high and the logic remains unchanged, and the continuous improvement in demand for overseas aluminum processing products will drive domestic exports
.
It is expected that the number of aluminum export orders in the second quarter will continue to grow, and overseas demand will continue to improve
.
At present, domestic demand is relatively weak due to the epidemic, and major end-consumption areas such as real estate and automobiles are not performing well
.
From January to April, the cumulative new construction area of the real estate end decreased by 26.
3% year-on-year, the cumulative construction area was close to the same period last year, and the cumulative completed area decreased by 11.
9% year-on-year; China's automobile production in April was 1.
205 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 46.
23%; From January to April, China's automobile production was 7.
69 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 10.
5%.
The current decline in domestic demand is close to the inflection point, with the improvement of the epidemic, demand improvement is expected to still drive prices to remain strong, especially under the target of 5.
5% annual GDP growth, the real estate side may grow more than expected in the second half of the year, and consumption will eventually improve
.
Overall, the market began to digest the impact of the Fed's interest rate hike, the market risk aversion has weakened, but liquidity contraction is a foregone conclusion, domestic auto sector demand will improve, the real estate sector continues to weaken, near-term demand is still difficult to say optimistic, supply and demand mismatch pattern continues
.
Aluminum prices may enter the logic of weak long-term shocks and short-term stabilization after downstream replenishment, and the inflection point focuses on the follow-up epidemic trend
.
