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On Friday, the main PVC contract 2205 closed at 8857 yuan / ton, a weekly increase of 80 yuan / ton
.
This week, the thermal coal 2205 contract rebounded to around 770 yuan / ton
.
At the same time, COMEX crude oil maintained an upward trajectory, unchanged, and the futures price is expected to recover to $90-100 / barrel
.
In this way, the rise in costs will also promote the increase
in PVC futures prices.
In addition, the rise in domestic macro prosperity and the recovery of infrastructure and real estate will also trigger a seasonal rebound that will continue around March
.
In terms of costs, coal prices continued to rise, due to winter replenishment and tight spot resources
.
The thermal coal 2205 contract rose to around 770 yuan / ton
.
Meanwhile, COMEX crude oil performed strongly
driven by winter replenishment.
Rising energy costs have boosted PVC futures prices
.
In terms of spot, the mainstream quotation in East China maintained an increase of 8700 yuan / ton; The basis was extended to -148 yuan/ton
.
Warehouse receipts, the number of futures registered receipts increased significantly to 13,551 lots, or 67,700 tons
.
In terms of inventory, as of January 16, the total inventory of sample warehouses in East and South China was 175,500 tons, +6.
87% week-on-week; +20.
09%
YoY.
Overall inventories were not high, but they were up
from previous years.
From the upstream and downstream point of view, the upstream inspection equipment is scarce, and the operating rate remains high
.
Domestic calcium carbide prices have decreased
steadily.
As of Thursday, the mainstream ex-factory price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 4350 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton
from last Thursday.
In terms of demand, the overall start of downstream products enterprises is not high, hard products reduce the load into the holiday mode, and soft products can be started
.
At present, the social inventory is at a low level, and it is necessary to pay attention to the stocking situation
before the year.
In terms of PVC starts, the overall operating load of the domestic PVC industry increased this week, and there were no new maintenance enterprises
this week.
According to Zhuochuang data, as of January 20, the overall operating load of PVC was 78.
79%, +3.
24% month-on-month; Among them, the operating rate of calcium carbide method is 80.
81%, and the ethylene method is 71.
33%.
According to statistics, the loss caused by shutdown and maintenance this week was 22,400 tons, -11,800 tons
week-on-week.
According to the convention, with the arrival of the spring peak season, the operating rate of PVC enterprises is likely to pick up
.
Under the pattern of monetary easing, domestic real estate infrastructure and manufacturing are expected to pick up
in the first half of this year.
At present, the inventory of the PVC industry is not large; At the same time, the terminal demand enters the replenishment and stocking stage
.
In this way, driven by terminal consumption, the PVC market has the potential to initiate a wave of intermediate rebound, which will last around
March.
