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In the first half of this year, the prices of domestic and imported coking coal have generally risen sharply.
Among them, the prices of some coal types have been temporarily adjusted after the Spring Festival to early April
.
From the perspective of domestic representative coking coal prices, in early July, Liulin low-sulfur main coking clean coal (sulfur content 0.
The imbalance between supply and demand is the fundamental reason for the price increase of coking coal in the first half of the year
Domestic production of coking coal has been significantly reduced
.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to May, the country completed 1.
621 billion tons of raw coal output, an increase of 131 million tons or 8.
8% year-on-year
The import volume of coking coal has dropped sharply, and the volume of imported high-quality main coking coal has been reduced relatively more
.
According to customs data, from January to May this year, China imported 18.
15 million tons of coking coal, a year-on-year decrease of 13.
The overall demand for coking coal is increasing
.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to May, coke production increased by 10.
34 million tons year-on-year, an increase of 5.
From the perspective of supply and demand, the overall supply of domestic coking coal (including net imports) in the first half of this year decreased year-on-year, especially strong coking coal, fat coal and other strong coking coal fell more year-on-year, while the overall demand for coking coal increased year-on-year.
The overall supply and demand of coking coal in the same period last year It is only slightly loose, which means that there is a large gap in the supply of domestic coking coal, especially coking coal, fat coal and other strong cohesive coal in the first half of this year.
In addition, in addition to the tight supply of coking coal itself leading to price increases, macro-inflation expectations and industrial chain policies have led to strong commodity price trends throughout the industrial chain, and factors such as limited thermal coal supply leading to continued tight supply and demand have also stimulated to a certain extent.
This led to the rise in domestic coking coal prices
Domestic coking coal prices are likely to remain firm in the second half of the year
In terms of supply, domestic new coking coal production capacity will be less than 10 million tons in the second half of the year, and the increase in open-pit mine output will continue to be limited, and the supply of coking coal will be limited
.
According to statistics, the new domestic coking coal mine production capacity this year is less than 10 million tons.
The largest coking coal mine newly put into production is Xinhu Coal Mine of Huaibei Mining Group.
The mine has an approved annual production capacity of 3 million tons.
In terms of imports, if Mongolia’s coking coal imports are gradually restored from July to August to the same period in 2020, the coking coal imports from other countries are estimated based on the largest import volume in the first few months of this year, July and August.
The monthly import volume of coking coal may still show a downward trend year-on-year.
On the demand side, from the tracked statistical results of the addition and elimination of coking capacity, the coking capacity will increase continuously in the second half of the year
.
With the gradual release of new coking capacity, the demand for coking coal will increase
.
However, judging from the current policy, reducing crude steel production may be a key event in the second half of the year, and the demand for coking coal will also be affected to a certain extent
.
In terms of price, the price of coking coal is expected to be relatively firm in the second half of the year
.
Even if supply increases and demand weakens, the coking coal supply gap that existed in early June may not be able to make up in the second half of the year
.
In addition, the overall inventory of coking coal is currently low, and the inventory of main coking coal is particularly low.
At the end of the year, the coking plant must carry out a wave of winter storage and replenishment
.
On the whole, as coke prices decline periodically in the second half of the year, coking profits will be compressed, and coking coal prices may also be adjusted at a high level, but they will be relatively resilient, and the main coking coal prices will likely be relatively strong
.
(Li Yu)
Transfer from: China Coal News
