Respond to a new round of energy crisis and seize the opportunity of the fourth technological revolution

The world has entered the era of the fourth technological revolution, and any country that does not join this technological revolution will lag behind the world, and any country should embrace the fourth technological revolution
in an open form.
For developing countries, economic take-off should be achieved with the help of the fourth technological revolution, and "overtaking in corners" should be achieved in some key areas
.
Today, with the outbreak of the fourth technological revolution, China should not only become an active participant, but also become a leader, which is the only way
for China to become strong.
One of the core tasks of the fourth technological revolution is the new energy revolution, and for China, it is of great significance
to completely solve the energy problem and accelerate the new energy revolution.

First, the need
to deal with a new round of energy crisis.
The new round of energy crisis, which began at the end of 2021, once again shows that the energy crisis has the essential characteristics of economic crisis, that is, it is "sudden" and "abrupt"
.
Energy directly affects the cost of production and the cost of living, and rising energy prices will increase inflationary pressures and may even trigger stagflation
.
Judging from the negative impact of the three energy crises that have occurred in the past 50 years, two of them have clearly led to widespread stagflation in Western countries
.
Oil is a non-renewable resource, mainly distributed in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf
.
Petroleum resources as an important resource are the core results
of the second technological revolution.
Geophysicist Hubble once pointed out that the peak of oil production in some major oil-producing countries is approaching, and oil prices will rise as a
result.
This view can be called the "Hubble oil vertex" theory
.
It took the world 146 years to use up the first 1 trillion barrels of oil, and it took about 25 years
to use up the second 1 trillion barrels.
Factors affecting commodity prices, including oil and other energy sources, include real supply and demand, dollar movements, speculation and other factors, of which speculation cannot be underestimated, that is, international short-term capital has a significant impact on
commodity prices.
There are a large number of hedge funds in the international commodity trading market, on the one hand, the scale of funds involved is huge, and on the other hand, the proportion of trading volume is high
.
From the perspective of factors affecting the trend of oil prices, the United States insists on raising interest rates and shrinking the balance sheet to promote the appreciation of the US dollar, because international oil prices are mainly marked and settled in US dollars, which can inhibit the rise
in oil prices to a certain extent.
However, due to insufficient investment in oil extraction and other aspects in recent years, the lack of motivation and reasons for major oil producing countries to increase supply, and the speculation of international hot money on oil, these factors will boost oil prices, and the appreciation of the US dollar has a limit, so oil prices will remain high for a certain period of
time.
China has achieved remarkable results in controlling inflation, but it should also focus on responding to a new round of energy crisis and preventing a new round of energy crisis from triggering inflation or stagflation
.

Second, the need to
optimize the energy structure.
China's energy structure is characterized by coal, which relies on coal for more than 60% of power generation; The high dependence on oil abroad has reached 70%, second only to India, which has become a constraint on economic development; Wind energy resources are relatively abundant, etc
.
At present, China's energy structure is still dominated by traditional energy, and the direction of optimizing the energy structure is to gradually get rid of dependence on
traditional energy.
A prominent problem in China's energy structure is that oil is too dependent on foreign countries and is vulnerable to the impact of
the international energy market.
The international oil market consists of a futures market and a spot market, of which the futures market includes the New York Mercantile Exchange, the Tokyo Industrial Exchange and the London International Petroleum Exchange, and the spot market includes the US market, the northwest European market, the Mediterranean market, the Caribbean market and the Singapore market
.
Because the development of new energy will be difficult to absolutely replace traditional energy sources such as oil and coal for a long period of time in the future, traditional energy sources
cannot be ignored in the fourth wave of technological revolution.
From a series of energy-related data, it can be observed that the energy problem has become a key, urgent and strategic issue that China must fully solve
.
Take oil, for example
.
According to public information, the world's top ten oil importers are China, the United States, India, Japan, South Korea, Germany, Spain, Italy, France and the Netherlands, China's average daily oil imports exceed 10 million barrels, the United States is close to 8 million barrels, India is close to 5 million barrels
.
China's oil imports rank first
in the world.
Among the top ten countries in the world in terms of oil imports, Germany, Spain, Italy, France and the Netherlands are all economically developed countries
in Europe, except for China.
Although developed countries in Europe have long attached great importance to the development of new energy, such as the Netherlands, which attaches great importance to the development of new energy such as wind power and photovoltaics, they still cannot get rid of their high dependence on
traditional energy.
Among European countries, Britain, Norway and Finland are all major oil producers, and the good social welfare treatment of Norway, Finland and other countries is inseparable from
oil.
India ranks third in the world's oil imports, and the dependence on crude oil imports is as high as 80%, which is higher
than the external dependence of China's petroleum.
The United States, known as the "automobile kingdom", is also very dependent on oil, once the world's largest oil importer, but through the implementation of energy strategies, such as the vigorous exploitation of shale gas, crude oil dependence on foreign countries has dropped significantly, has fallen to nearly 30%.

In the future, China should seize the major historical opportunity of the fourth technological revolution, gradually optimize the energy structure by vigorously developing solar energy, wind energy, lithium battery energy, etc.
, gradually reduce the proportion of traditional energy in the energy structure, and gradually make new energy the main force
of the energy structure.

Third, the need to
ensure the long-term and stable growth of China's economy.
Chinese average resource reserves are far lower than the world's per capita level, which restricts and constrains
China's long-term economic development.
The crude oil that can be extracted globally under the established technical conditions is about 3 trillion to 4 trillion barrels, of which 1 trillion barrels are easily extracted and obtained, and the remaining ones are relatively difficult to extract and the cost of extraction is relatively high
.
Because China is in the economic take-off stage, the demand for energy will become larger and larger, and traditional energy is affected by various uncertainties, supply and price fluctuations are large, which is bound to cause interference in China's economic development
, and the use of new energy to gradually replace traditional energy has become inevitable and urgent.
The development of new energy requires technological innovation and integration with digital technology, which is of great benefit
to transforming the mode of economic development and continuously promoting the fourth technological revolution.
Through a period of accumulation, China's new energy technology has ranked in the forefront of the world, and the new energy economy has also achieved fruitful results, and we should continue to make efforts
in new energy technology innovation.
The core of China's high-quality economic development lies in technological innovation, completely getting rid of the economic development mode of low technology content and high energy consumption, and a key breakthrough in future technological innovation is the supply of new energy technology
.

Fourth, the need to
achieve the goals of "carbon peaking" and "carbon neutrality".
The problem of environmental pollution has long become a global problem, and any country should actively participate in environmental governance
.
China is a responsible major country that regards the improvement of the environment as an important strategic task and has taken many effective measures
.
The exploitation and utilization of traditional energy sources brings environmental problems, negatively affects air, water and ecology, and achieves "carbon peaking" and "carbon neutrality", which is conducive to improving the living environment, living environment and production environment
.
China has officially put forward the strategic goal of carbon peak 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060, that is, carbon dioxide emissions will no longer increase by 2030, and will gradually decrease after reaching the peak; By 2060, all carbon dioxide emissions will be
offset by planting trees, energy conservation and emission reduction.
To achieve the goal of double carbon, is a systematic project, one of the important measures is to vigorously develop new energy, through the effective supply of new energy, to achieve the purpose of
energy conservation and emission reduction.

(The author is an economist)