Reopening of the accumulation cycle The center of gravity of aluminum prices may shift down again

In the special environment of the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the absolute upper limit of electrolytic aluminum compliance capacity makes it impossible for the supply side to expand
disorderly in the environment of high profits.
With the continuous improvement of production capacity concentration, the potential tacit understanding of large group capacity launch has broken the prisoner's dilemma that has plagued the industry, forming an effective feedback
from production efficiency recovery to capacity growth.

On the demand side, in the process of rapid switching of macroeconomic cycles and the back and forth circulation of deflationary inflation expectations, the repeated switching of electrolytic aluminum commodities and financial attributes also stimulates the continuous change
of market form.

In the first half of the year, the concentrated outbreak of infrastructure and real estate demand stimulated by the policy brought strong support for electrolytic aluminum destocking, and speculative stockpiling during the "gold pit" also helped the stabilization and recovery of aluminum prices
.

With the spread of the overseas epidemic, the demand growth brought by the export boom of terminal products successfully opened the destocking market in the second half of the year
.
Even if there is an irreconcilable objective reality in the mutation of the virus and the popularization of vaccines, and fiscal and monetary stimulus has a tendency to diminish marginal utility, the trend of supply and demand in the epidemic environment has formed
.
In the key year of the opening of the 14th Five-Year Plan, there are optimistic expectations for consumption recovery in 2021, but there may be some bumps
on the road.

Looking forward to 2021, under the fundamental pattern of double increase in supply and demand, through the effective transmission of aluminum price profits to capacity adjustment, the growth trend of the supply side will not change easily once
it is formed.
In the face of increasing supply pressure, demand growth will inevitably be caught up
by supply growth.
When the inflection point of supply and demand occurs, the guidance signal on the inventory side will still be a powerful grip for price reversal
.

In the first half of the year, there will still be a certain supply gap in the domestic market, and the import window will remain open
.
However, in the second half of the year, as the apparent demand is difficult to continue to improve marginally, the pressure of oversupply may put pressure on aluminum prices, and with the reopening of the accumulation cycle, the center of gravity of aluminum prices may shift
down again.
The operating range of aluminum prices throughout the year may be between
14300-17500.