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【Chemical machinery and equipment network market analysis】 This year's domestic urea prices have experienced a "roller coaster" style of sharp rise and fall, Xinjiang urea out of Xinjiang early, the price reduction range, are unprecedented before, Xinjiang urea out of Xinjiang on the overall market price of what impact? What is the current state of the domestic urea market?
This issue of Feiduoduo Monthly Talk was launched on June 30, we specially invited senior agricultural material practitioners, Feiduoduo Big Data Service Department Director Gao Xinqi as a guest Feiduoduo Monthly Talk, interpreting the market trend of urea under the influence of multiple factors, and the whole process was full
of dry goods.
Today, the editor will take you to review the dry goods knowledge points
of this live broadcast.
of dry goods.
Today, the editor will take you to review the dry goods knowledge points
of this live broadcast.
Fei Duoduo talked about the actual record
Q1: The microscopic impact of Xinjiang urea export on the overall trend of urea prices
In the past, the time of Xinjiang urea out of Xinjiang was mainly concentrated in September and October, but in June this year, Xinjiang urea began to reduce the price process, urea began to go out of Xinjiang, from the highest 3200 yuan / ton to the current lowest 2550 yuan / ton, the price reduction range is about 650 yuan, the price reduction range reached the maximum value of the national market, the impact on the market is very large
.
.
The price of urea in Xinjiang reached about 3,200 yuan / ton in early June, mainly because Xinjiang's agricultural input last year was relatively large, the land development area was relatively large, and the overall income of farmers was very high, resulting in the strong demand for urea in Xinjiang this year
.
In addition, because traders in Xinjiang have the habit of collecting money from downstream customers in winter and delivering fertilizer in the next year, traders who asked for prices in advance in Xinjiang last year lost money
.
Therefore, traders in the later stage were worried that they would not be able to deliver on time in the process of continuous ordering, so they had to cooperate with the rhythm of factory price increases, and pulled the price of urea in Xinjiang all the way to a peak of 3200 yuan / ton
.
.
In addition, because traders in Xinjiang have the habit of collecting money from downstream customers in winter and delivering fertilizer in the next year, traders who asked for prices in advance in Xinjiang last year lost money
.
Therefore, traders in the later stage were worried that they would not be able to deliver on time in the process of continuous ordering, so they had to cooperate with the rhythm of factory price increases, and pulled the price of urea in Xinjiang all the way to a peak of 3200 yuan / ton
.
Why does the export of urea affect the price of
urea in the national market.
In the short term, Xinjiang, as an exporting province of urea resources, has an annual output of more than 3 million tons of urea, excluding the 1-2 million tons consumed in the region, and the remaining more than 1 million tons are bound to go out of Xinjiang
.
Moreover, in the past two years, Xinjiang's urea production capacity is very sufficient
.
Therefore, in principle, wherever the goods in Xinjiang go, the price
will fall.
Xinjiang urea mainly flows to Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Hubei, and even to Henan and other provinces
.
The overall impact of Xinjiang urea out of Xinjiang in a short period of time may not be large, but with the arrival of this batch of goods, each time Xinjiang urea arrives in a province, it will not only have an impact on the urea price of the province, but also affect the urea price of its neighboring provinces, so it seems that urea out of Xinjiang affects only a few of them, but these provinces will cover a large range of provinces south of the Yangtze River, so the national urea will enter the
state of spot decline.
urea in the national market.
In the short term, Xinjiang, as an exporting province of urea resources, has an annual output of more than 3 million tons of urea, excluding the 1-2 million tons consumed in the region, and the remaining more than 1 million tons are bound to go out of Xinjiang
.
Moreover, in the past two years, Xinjiang's urea production capacity is very sufficient
.
Therefore, in principle, wherever the goods in Xinjiang go, the price
will fall.
Xinjiang urea mainly flows to Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Hubei, and even to Henan and other provinces
.
The overall impact of Xinjiang urea out of Xinjiang in a short period of time may not be large, but with the arrival of this batch of goods, each time Xinjiang urea arrives in a province, it will not only have an impact on the urea price of the province, but also affect the urea price of its neighboring provinces, so it seems that urea out of Xinjiang affects only a few of them, but these provinces will cover a large range of provinces south of the Yangtze River, so the national urea will enter the
state of spot decline.
In the medium and long term, the Xinjiang factory is definitely going to discharge floods, because the operation of the Xinjiang factory in the past two years is to ensure the low price outside Xinjiang and high price in Xinjiang, dump a large amount of spot goods outside Xinjiang when the pressure is transformed, ensure the normalization of inventory in Xinjiang, and thus ensure the high price of urea in Xinjiang, so Xinjiang may become a relative urea high price area
in the third and fourth quarters.
However, on the other hand, once it enters the winter, the coal transportation capacity and urea will form a rush situation, and the urea out of Xinjiang will be hindered
due to capacity problems.
Under this circumstance, how to achieve hedging, Xinjiang traders must think deeply about the idea of hedging futures
.
in the third and fourth quarters.
However, on the other hand, once it enters the winter, the coal transportation capacity and urea will form a rush situation, and the urea out of Xinjiang will be hindered
due to capacity problems.
Under this circumstance, how to achieve hedging, Xinjiang traders must think deeply about the idea of hedging futures
.
Q2: Overall market dynamics trend for urea
1.
Customs legal inspection is becoming stricter, and urea exports are restricted
Customs legal inspection is becoming stricter, and urea exports are restricted
Recently, the urea market has fluctuated greatly, the spot market has generally fallen, futures have fallen sharply, and the market reaction sentiment is large
.
From the micro level, it has recently been reported that the customs legal inspection and approval authority may be attributed to the General Administration of Customs, the legal inspection is becoming stricter, and the legal inspection time for urea export may be extended from the previous 30-45 days to 70-90 days, if the news is implemented, this will seriously limit the export of urea
.
From the spot side, this is a major bearish factor, under the influence of this major bearish factor, the plate is very weak, and many factories on the spot end have no flow
.
Coupled with the second half of the year Henan Junhua, Shandong Mingshui, Anhui Haoyuan, Xinjiang Zhongneng, Northeast Ulan Daihua and other enterprises new equipment put into production, if July to September this year can not be exported as usual, domestic urea will form a huge accumulation
.
In this situation, enterprises must make good use of futures hedging tools and do a good job of hedging
.
Small and medium-sized traders are better off holding a wait-and-see attitude to avoid extreme risks
when they are not just needed.
.
From the micro level, it has recently been reported that the customs legal inspection and approval authority may be attributed to the General Administration of Customs, the legal inspection is becoming stricter, and the legal inspection time for urea export may be extended from the previous 30-45 days to 70-90 days, if the news is implemented, this will seriously limit the export of urea
.
From the spot side, this is a major bearish factor, under the influence of this major bearish factor, the plate is very weak, and many factories on the spot end have no flow
.
Coupled with the second half of the year Henan Junhua, Shandong Mingshui, Anhui Haoyuan, Xinjiang Zhongneng, Northeast Ulan Daihua and other enterprises new equipment put into production, if July to September this year can not be exported as usual, domestic urea will form a huge accumulation
.
In this situation, enterprises must make good use of futures hedging tools and do a good job of hedging
.
Small and medium-sized traders are better off holding a wait-and-see attitude to avoid extreme risks
when they are not just needed.
2.
The international situation is complex, and the possibility of urea pullback is unlikely, and extreme risks
need to be prevented.
The international situation is complex, and the possibility of urea pullback is unlikely, and extreme risks
need to be prevented.
From a macro perspective, first of all, the Russian-Ukrainian war and the ongoing deep confrontation between Europe, the United States and Russia are unlikely to lead to a pullback in basic energy
.
Secondly, summer is the peak period of electricity consumption, and the signs of thermal coal rising are obvious
.
After the superimposed summer, the peak heating period in autumn and winter arrives, and the energy shortage
continues.
The recession period of strong consumer countries in Europe and the United States has arrived, and in the case of intertwined long and short, the frequency of market energy soaring and falling will increase
.
In the case of a relatively complex market, companies should make good use of hedging tools and do a good job of hedging
.
.
Secondly, summer is the peak period of electricity consumption, and the signs of thermal coal rising are obvious
.
After the superimposed summer, the peak heating period in autumn and winter arrives, and the energy shortage
continues.
The recession period of strong consumer countries in Europe and the United States has arrived, and in the case of intertwined long and short, the frequency of market energy soaring and falling will increase
.
In the case of a relatively complex market, companies should make good use of hedging tools and do a good job of hedging
.
Q3: How to operate hedging in a complex market environment
At a time
when futures and spot are not deeply discounted and market demand has undergone a major shift.
Companies should seriously consider whether to hedge, not to catch the last wave
.
For example, many northern companies this year have judged that June to July will usher in the climax of
topdressing and fertilization.
At that time, many traders in Shandong had considered that the spot price of urea would rise to 3400 yuan / ton - 3500 yuan / ton, but now it has been falsified, and there is no climax period
of active topdressing and fertilization in the northeast, north China, south and southwest China.
Moreover, like the Hebei subregion, the fertilizer application at the end of this year is sufficient, and the amount of top dressing is reduced, so the annual market includes the habit of fertilization, which is dynamically changing
.
In this market situation, the hedging of the futures side is very important, how much the spot is sold, how much the futures are flat, in order to achieve the protection of the futures end of the hedging on the spot end
.
when futures and spot are not deeply discounted and market demand has undergone a major shift.
Companies should seriously consider whether to hedge, not to catch the last wave
.
For example, many northern companies this year have judged that June to July will usher in the climax of
topdressing and fertilization.
At that time, many traders in Shandong had considered that the spot price of urea would rise to 3400 yuan / ton - 3500 yuan / ton, but now it has been falsified, and there is no climax period
of active topdressing and fertilization in the northeast, north China, south and southwest China.
Moreover, like the Hebei subregion, the fertilizer application at the end of this year is sufficient, and the amount of top dressing is reduced, so the annual market includes the habit of fertilization, which is dynamically changing
.
In this market situation, the hedging of the futures side is very important, how much the spot is sold, how much the futures are flat, in order to achieve the protection of the futures end of the hedging on the spot end
.
Q4: Selected fans ask questions
1.
May I ask Mr.
Gao, do you think that this year's urea spot will fall to the end of August?
May I ask Mr.
Gao, do you think that this year's urea spot will fall to the end of August?
According to the current situation, if urea cannot be exported on schedule due to strict legal inspection in July and September this year, then I personally think that the low price of urea this year may appear in September and October
.
You can look back that in 2019 and 2020, represented by Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, the low point of urea prices appeared in October
.
Of course, the overall process is not necessarily a full decline, it is possible that when the accumulation is too much, the factory adopts the Fed joint sales policy in order to relieve pressure, and the goods move
forward.
In addition, if the national reserves this year are larger than last year, this is also a positive factor, which can hedge some bearish factors
.
.
You can look back that in 2019 and 2020, represented by Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, the low point of urea prices appeared in October
.
Of course, the overall process is not necessarily a full decline, it is possible that when the accumulation is too much, the factory adopts the Fed joint sales policy in order to relieve pressure, and the goods move
forward.
In addition, if the national reserves this year are larger than last year, this is also a positive factor, which can hedge some bearish factors
.
Therefore, from the current point of view, if this year's national reserve and the same period last year or even less, the legal inspection is strict, and exports are restricted, then this year's urea price low may appear in mid-September, or even early October, this problem needs to be dynamically thought and observed
.
Therefore, from July to August, the strategy of the enterprise management team should focus on the futures side, focusing on how to do a good job of hedging, how to hedge risks, and avoid losses
caused by risks.
.
Therefore, from July to August, the strategy of the enterprise management team should focus on the futures side, focusing on how to do a good job of hedging, how to hedge risks, and avoid losses
caused by risks.
2.
May I ask Mr.
Gao, will the price of phosphate fertilizer be greatly reduced next?
May I ask Mr.
Gao, will the price of phosphate fertilizer be greatly reduced next?
This problem can look at a basic logic, first of all, we must look at sulfur and crude oil, because sulfur in phosphate fertilizer raw materials accounts for a relatively large
proportion.
As new energy trams gradually become mainstream vehicles, the industrial use of lithium iron phosphate continues to increase, and the price of phosphate ore is unlikely to be reduced in the short term
.
In addition, if the global energy crisis continues, crude oil will not fall, in addition, under the role of national macro-control, crude oil still has more than a dozen dollars of room
to rise.
Although the legal inspection is strict, the phosphate fertilizer has cost support and will not fall
sharply in a short period of time.
proportion.
As new energy trams gradually become mainstream vehicles, the industrial use of lithium iron phosphate continues to increase, and the price of phosphate ore is unlikely to be reduced in the short term
.
In addition, if the global energy crisis continues, crude oil will not fall, in addition, under the role of national macro-control, crude oil still has more than a dozen dollars of room
to rise.
Although the legal inspection is strict, the phosphate fertilizer has cost support and will not fall
sharply in a short period of time.
epilogue
We are on a blue ocean track and we should always have confidence
.
China is in the process of transforming from an agricultural country to an agricultural power, so China may enter a cycle of large-scale agricultural subsidies, and the state's macro-control of agriculture will be more precise
.
Compound fertilizer enterprises, trading enterprises, commercial factories and other fertilizer industry chain enterprises must meet the overall strategic planning of the country through their own industrial integration and transformation, and work with the country to make their own contributions
to China's agricultural power.
.
China is in the process of transforming from an agricultural country to an agricultural power, so China may enter a cycle of large-scale agricultural subsidies, and the state's macro-control of agriculture will be more precise
.
Compound fertilizer enterprises, trading enterprises, commercial factories and other fertilizer industry chain enterprises must meet the overall strategic planning of the country through their own industrial integration and transformation, and work with the country to make their own contributions
to China's agricultural power.
Finally, on behalf of Fei Duoduo, I would like to personally thank you for your attention
.
We are committed to creating a fair and just platform to give everyone real views and multi-dimensional thinking
.
.
We are committed to creating a fair and just platform to give everyone real views and multi-dimensional thinking
.
The above is the wonderful sharing of this issue of Fei Duo Duo Monthly Talk! See you in the next issue!
The opinions of the guests in the interview are their personal views and are for reference
only.
only.
Hara: [Hido Duo Yue Talk] Review | Reflections on the trend of urea prices in a complex market environment
