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In the third quarter, recycled PVC was stable and small, and only some of them were expected to fluctuate; in the fourth quarter, recycled PVC still faced a regional shortage of supply.
This article will focus on the analysis of the performance of the third quarter and the forecast for the fourth quarter
.
After the steady rise of hard materials in the second quarter and the mixed rise and fall of soft materials, the recycled PVC market in the third quarter of 2020 entered a long-term sustained and strong trend with little change
.
In terms of soft pellets, most recycled manufacturers are producing normally, and the supply of goods is relatively sufficient.
Although the supply of some wool materials such as door curtains and steel wire hoses was slightly tight in late August, the overall downstream demand was weak, and downstream manufacturers were limited in their purchases.
The goods were not good, and the inventory increased.
In mid-August, some pellets were priced above 5,000 yuan/ton under pressure, and other pellets remained stable on the sidelines
.
However, after the price cut, the transaction did not improve, and some manufacturers of recycled soft products stopped work in the second half of the year to wait and see
.
In terms of hard crushed materials, recycled PVC manufacturers are producing normally, and most areas have stable supply.
For example, in the first half of July, some areas such as Dingzhou and Wuhan were in short supply due to shortage of wool materials
.
In the first half of the third quarter, most manufacturers reported that the shipments in the third quarter were acceptable, but the shipments decreased compared with the same period last year, and the transactions were concentrated among old customers; only a few manufacturers reported that the supply was in short supply this year, and new customers were also more active in inquiries
.
In the third quarter, the overall PVC market price showed a trend of shock and upward movement, and the price fluctuation range was relatively reduced.
Taking East China SG-5 as an example, the lowest price in the third quarter was 6228 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6725 yuan/ton, and the cumulative increase was 497 yuan/ton.
.
In the third quarter, the supply began to gradually increase, and the arrival of imported goods increased significantly.
There is still some rush to work in demand, but the demand for rush work is gradually coming to an end, and as the weather turns hot, some demand has slightly decreased month-on-month
.
In the first ten days of July, the market experienced a relatively obvious rise with the support of abundant capital liquidity and favorable macroeconomic conditions.
However, from late July to early September, the overall price fluctuated mainly.
In late September, the market began to stock up at the terminal and export.
Under the support of higher-than-expected increase in orders, prices rose again
.
Fourth quarter forecast
Fourth quarter forecastThe main factors affecting the recycled PVC market in the next quarter are the economic situation, supply and demand and other factors
.
Economic situation: At present, localities at all levels are also planning and deploying all-out efforts to sprint the fourth quarter to ensure the completion of the annual goals and tasks
.
From the perspective of the focus of the work in the fourth quarter of the decisive battle, expanding effective investment, promoting the expansion and quality of consumption, and fully releasing the potential of economic development are still the most important things
.
In terms of recycled PVC supply: At present, most recycled PVC manufacturers are producing normally, and there is no change in the short term, so there is little chance of voluntary shutdown
.
There is still a shortage of wool supply for hard and soft products in some areas, and it is expected that the supply of goods in some areas may be tight
.
In terms of demand for recycled PVC: the seasonal demand is flat, supported by a certain rigid demand, and it is expected that downstream manufacturers will mainly purchase on demand
.
Based on the above, the supply and demand of recycled PVC has a great influence.
It is expected that recycled PVC may show a stable and narrow market situation in the fourth quarter
.
