Recently affected by the epidemic, the overall weak operation of rubber

Some analysts believe that although Chairman Powell said that the emergency rate cut is one of the countermeasures to the negative impact of the new coronavirus on the economy, some market analysts believe that the recent shortage of US dollar liquidity and the sharp fluctuations in the securities market are the main reasons
for the Fed's decision.
As a result, market expectations for another 25-point rate cut on this month's FOMC have also begun to heat up, and with the follow-up of other central banks, it is likely to trigger global monetary easing
in the short term.

Rubber continues to be volatile, and Longzhong data shows that tire starts continue to recover, but the overall is still low
.
The news surface has not changed much, and there are still many and short coexistences
.
The core influencing factor of rubber in the near future is still the game between the weak spot market and a steady stream of macro benefits
.
At present, the contradiction is fierce, and it is difficult to distinguish the winner and the loser for the
time being.

From a technical point of view, rubber futures stood on the 5-day moving average yesterday, but the 20-day moving average is still under pressure, and it is expected that the rubber will show a shock rebound pattern, and the development of the epidemic is still the main risk point
.
In terms of spread structure, the middle May contract still has a certain premium compared to the near far month contract, due to the sluggish market trading, the possibility of short-term spread correction is small, and the near month contract faces further position consolidation, which increases the possibility of the near month premium
.
In terms of investment transactions, it is recommended to wait and see, waiting for new materials
to appear in the rubber market.

Fundamentals, the upstream supply of natural rubber remained normal, the market paid more attention to the changes in downstream demand, and the market reacted more intensely
.
Due to the impact of the epidemic, the governments of European and American countries have intensified the market's concerns about the spread of the epidemic, and domestic tire exports to European and American countries account for more than 50%.

If the epidemic breaks out, the demand port is expected to decline and have a greater negative impact on rubber, but because the absolute price of rubber is at a historical low, the market is more cautious and emotionally volatile
.
In the short-term technical trend, the rebound after the secondary circuit of rubber is significantly lower than the first wave, the market pessimistic expectation is strong, and the short-term trend is bearish
.
In terms of trading strategies, the emotional volatility of the commodity market has intensified, and it is expected to be wide and volatile
.

Rubber futures trend weak down, recently affected by the epidemic, the overall weak operation, the operation between 11800-10500 high selling low absorption, rolling operation, gradually moving profit protection
.