PX: Tight supply is rising like a rainbow

　　In the first half of the year, the market trend of paraxylene (PX) can be described as rising like a rainbow
.
Under the dual effects of the sharp rise in international crude oil prices and the tightening of overseas supply, the market price focus continued to rise, rising from the lowest point of 6,700 yuan at the beginning of the year to 10,900 yuan at the end of June, a half-year increase of 49.
25%, ranking at the forefront of the increase list
.
Compared with the same period of last year, the price range of paraxylene in the first half of this year has moved up by 2000~3000 yuan as a whole
.

　　Zhang Qiang, a Liaoning paraxylene dealer: the biggest increase is 62.
69%

　　At the beginning of the year, the price of paraxylene started at 6,700 yuan (ton price, the same below), and then continued to rise
.
After two rapid rises, the price rose to 10,900 yuan, an increase of 62.
69%
.
On the last trading day of the first half of the year, it suddenly fell to 10,000 yuan, and finally ended with an increase of 49.
25%
.

　　It was observed that the first substantial rise in market prices occurred in early March
.
At the beginning of the year, it rose slowly from the point of 6,700 yuan
.
It suddenly started in early March, and it rose sharply to 9,500 yuan on March 9.
The price increased by 15.
85% in a week, and increased by 41.
79% compared with the same period last year
.
After that, it traded sideways on the 9,300 yuan line for a month and a half, until it pulled back to 8,900 yuan on April 29, and the first price rise came to an end
.

　　The second big uplift occurred from mid-May to mid-June
.
The average market price of paraxylene slowly climbed from 8,900 yuan at the end of April to 9,300 yuan, returning to the previous high price
.
After that, the second rapid upward movement started.
It started online from 9,300 yuan on May 17, and rose to a high of 10,900 yuan in the first half of the year on June 17, an increase of 17.
2% in one month
.
Then it traded sideways for half a month, and on the last day of the first half of the year, it suddenly pulled back to 10,000 yuan, and finally ended with a 49.
25% increase
.

　　Chen Ling, p-xylene analyst of the business club: double driving the market up

　　The sharp rise in international crude oil prices and the tightening of overseas supply have become the factors for the strong rise of paraxylene in the first half of this year
.
On the one hand, international crude oil prices are steadily strengthening, and the cost of paraxylene is well supported in a warmer environment
.

　　From the perspective of cost, the sharp rise in international crude oil prices has formed a cost support for the market price of paraxylene, which has promoted two sharp rises
.
International crude oil prices rose by 8.
90% in March
.
In the context of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the world's second-largest oil exporter Russia, the world's second largest oil exporter, has been predicted to cause supply disruptions due to Western sanctions
.
As the Russia-Ukraine negotiations stalled, the sensitive issue of the risk of supply disruptions became more and more prominent, driving oil prices up rapidly
.
In May, the international crude oil price rose sharply again, an increase of 9.
91%
.
At that time, the peak summer driving season in the United States arrived, and demand expectations boosted oil prices.
At the same time, OPEC rejected calls to increase production faster to reduce soaring oil prices, driving crude oil prices to rise sharply
.
Supported by the rising cost of international crude oil prices, domestic market prices rose
.

　　From the perspective of supply, the domestic paraxylene market was basically operating normally in March, and the operating rate was around 60%
.
However, due to the strong demand for oil blending in the United States, the upstream raw materials of paraxylene, toluene and xylene, are mainly used for oil blending, resulting in a reduction in the production of paraxylene and a tight supply
.
At the same time, Asian products are more inclined to be exported to the United States for arbitrage, which leads to the disruption of the supply and demand pattern in the Asian market, and the price trend rises, driving the domestic paraxylene market price to rise sharply
.
In May, a deflagration accident occurred in a South Korean plant, which led to a decrease in the supply of paraxylene in Asia, and a decline in the start-up of overseas plants and a decrease in imported supplies, which drove the domestic paraxylene market price to rise sharply
.

　　Jinlianchuang Chemical Analyst Bian Chenhui: Tight supply may break

　　With the addition of new paraxylene production capacity, the terminal clothing industry is weak, and the tight supply situation will be broken
.

　　In the first half of the year, tight supply was one of the factors that pushed up the paraxylene market
.
From the perspective of supply in the second half of the year, on the one hand, a large number of new capacity has been added
.
At present, there are 3 new plants planned to be put into operation in China, with a total production capacity of 6.
5 million tons per year, which is close to 20% of the total domestic production capacity
.
On the other hand, as the profit of paraxylene returns to a high level, enterprises will maintain high-load production, so the industry supply will continue to increase
.

　　From the perspective of downstream demand, although a new purified terephthalic acid (PTA) plant with a production capacity of about 12.
5 million tons/year is planned to be put into operation in the second half of the year, due to the excess capacity in the industry, there is a risk of delay in the commissioning of the new plant
.
Even if the business starts normally, it may remain in a low load state, so the increase in demand for paraxylene is limited
.

　　On the whole, under the loose supply and the Fed rate hike cycle, the global loose monetary policy has turned, and OPEC continues to increase production, the crude oil market is under pressure, the cost support is gradually weakened, and the paraxylene market may fluctuate down
.