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Last week, the overall price of PVC industry chain products fell, ethylene prices and calcium carbide fell little, but vinyl chloride prices fell
significantly.
Domestic PVC prices have also been reduced
.
The mainstream price of calcium carbide PVC in East China market was 8570 yuan / ton, down 30 yuan / ton from last week; ethylene PVC was 8850 yuan / ton, down 250 yuan / ton from last week; The Asian PVC market continued to fall by $10-40 due to weak demand; The supply in Asia has increased, and the future market continues to be low due to the weakening of demand, and the current quotation of China's PVC exports is 1180-1250 US dollars / ton FOB
.
On the macro front, on December 20, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Lending Center to announce a 1-year LPR of 3.
8%, the first rate
cut since April 20, 2020.
Monetary policy is favorable to land, and it takes time to transmit from the adjustment of monetary policy to the real economy, and the 5-year LPR mainly affects the mortgage interest rate, this quotation remains unchanged, or release a signal
that the real estate insists on stable regulation.
In the short term, the macro impact on PVC is relatively neutral
.
From a fundamental point of view, Vanguard Futures pointed out that the current market fundamentals are expected to weaken for a long time, and the PVC supply side is currently relatively stable, if there is no sudden situation or temporary load reduction requirements, it is expected that the overall start of PVC production enterprises will remain at a high level; Downstream terminal products enterprises are just difficult to have obvious increments, and the procurement enthusiasm is general; The supply of calcium carbide is currently slightly loose, and the supporting effect of the cost side on PVC is not obvious, and there is bottom-up pressure
.
At present, the fundamentals have not fluctuated sharply, and the previous gains may be given up, and it is expected that PVC futures will be dominated
by weak shock trends.
Follow-up recommendations pay attention to the trend of social inventory, if the social inventory level has a trend of destocking, the price may pick up
.