PVC volatility lower, short-term trend weakened

News: In October, the real estate development prosperity index was 101.
14, up 0.
06 points
from September.
From January to October 2019, the national real estate development investment was 109603 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.
3%, and the growth rate was 0.
2 percentage points
lower than that from January to September.
From January to October, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 854882 million square meters, an increase of 9.
0% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.
3 percentage points
faster than that from January to September.
The area of new housing starts was 185634 million square meters, an increase of 10.
0%, and the growth rate accelerated by 1.
4 percentage points
.
The completed area of housing was 542.
11 million square meters, down 5.
5%, a decrease of 3.
1 percentage points
.
From January to October, the sales area of commercial housing was 133251 million square meters, and the growth rate turned from negative to positive for the first time this year, with a year-on-year increase of 0.
1%, and a decrease of 0.
1%
from January to September.

Spot market: the price of PVC market in Fujian is stable, the mainstream of calcium carbide 5 type material 7000-6200 yuan / ton is cash exchange, Tianye 5 type 7200 yuan / ton (Wednesday delivery), Junzhengxin 7130 yuan / ton (20th delivery), Tianhu 3 type 7050 yuan / ton, Tianhu 8 type 7100 yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Exchange warehouse receipts reported 3 lots, intraday -18 lots, in the historical low area
.

Main positions: The top 20 long positions in the main contract are 131538 lots, -3 lots, short positions are 118619 lots, -5271 lots, and the net position is 12919 lots, which is a net increase
.

Summary: Taiwan lowered the December shipping schedule quotation, on October 30, China canceled anti-dumping to the United States, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, PVC production enterprises operating rate reported 79.
45%, an increase of 3.
18% from last week, these factors are bearish PVC
.
However, China and the United States are expected to cancel tariffs in phases, and PVC equipment maintenance unexpectedly increased in November, 5% higher than the same period last year, last week's PVC social inventory fell 15.
9% month-on-month, the speed of destocking has accelerated to boost market confidence, in addition to PVC downstream products imports decreased, exports increased also supported prices
.
At present, the long yin has destroyed the rebound pattern of PVC, and the short-term trend has weakened
.
Operationally, short orders in the hands of investors can be held
cautiously.