PVC volatility bias short-term focus on lower support

In terms of news, Inner Mongolia Junzheng Chemical's 700,000 tons/year (new plant 360,000 tons) PVC plant started normally
.
The price was raised by 50 yuan / ton, and the calcium carbide method 5 type factory reported 6300 yuan / ton acceptance, and the real market can be discussed
.

In terms of prices, Japan's naphtha CF Japan was at 601.
25 tons, up 4.
5, and naphtha FOB Singapore was at $65.
79 per barrel, up 0.
52
.
ethylene CFR Northeast Asia 1360, flat; CFR Southeast Asia was flat at $1270/mt
.

In the spot market, the price of some domestic PVC spot markets is basically flat
.
North China calcium carbide law reported 6490 yuan / ton, up 30; Ethylene law reported 6700 yuan / ton, flat; East China calcium carbide method reported 6750 yuan / ton, up 100, ethylene method 6980 yuan / ton, flat; South China calcium carbide method 6720, up 40, ethylene method 6850, flat
.
Raw material prices were flat, East China reported 3150 yuan, flat, Northwest reported 3420 yuan, flat
.

Summary of views: In terms of demand, the demand in the north is off-season, and the downstream operating rate has fallen, but considering the recovery of the downstream operating rate after the holiday, some merchants have pre-holiday bargain-hunting replenishment behavior, and the operating rate in South China is relatively stable; On the supply side, affected by replenishment in the short term, PVC upstream inventory decreased month-on-month, short-term supply pressure was not large, and the accumulation of
upstream before and after the Spring Festival was paid attention to in the later stage.
In the short term, under the influence of pre-holiday replenishment and inventory pressure, the futures price is prone to rise and fall
.
Technically, the PVC1805 contract opened high and reduced positions in shocks, if the futures price stands firm at 6850, it will further look at 7000, otherwise continue to test the support
near the five-day line.