PVC upside is limited

Since September, the PVC disk has shown a wide-ranging oscillation pattern, but the PVC market has soared recently.

However, it is worth mentioning that the actual maintenance losses in October were higher than expected, and the overall approach was close to September.

Centralized release of output from overseas installations

According to data, in the United States, due to the tight supply of upstream chlor-alkali and the influence of force majeure, the U.

Generally speaking, the pattern of overseas tightness will continue until mid-November, and the concentrated release of overseas device output may be in December.

Domestic supply pressure appears

The domestic production growth in October was lower than expected, and the actual maintenance was the same as in September.

According to statistics, as of last week, the average weekly operating rate of PVC production enterprises was 76.

In terms of inventory, as of the end of last week, domestic PVC social inventory decreased by 16.

　　Most of the new quotations offered by upstream manufacturers continue to increase, and upstream pre-sales are better.
Although the start-up load has gradually increased recently, the supply of goods to be delivered is too large, and the company has no sales pressure.
In terms of spot prices, the focus of the Guangzhou PVC market rose slightly, and the mainstream price range of calcium carbide method 5 was 7500-7600 yuan/ton.

　　The market demand is improving.
It is also evident from the data released by PVC companies.
At present, the structure of PVC is similar to that of PP, and the spot-end de-stocking is quite pricey, but it is expected that there will be pressure for incremental installations, and the stock installations will be started in winter.
The current PVC spread structure is a strong reality, weak expectations, high premiums, and there is little trading space for unilateral shorts.

Transfer from: Futures Daily

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