PVC: "Silver Ten" started to rise, can it end perfectly?

Halfway through October, after returning from the Double Holidays, the entire plastics market is boomi.

The price trend chart of PVC market in various places in October

Upstream raw materials: ethylene monomer, ethylene supply in Asia is sufficient, buying intention is sluggish, and it will maintain a stalemate in the short te.

Supply side:

petrochemical

Capacity

Device dynamics

Salt Lake Magnesium Industry

30

Overhauled on August 13th and planned to resume on November 10.

Salt Lake Magnesium Industry (Calcium Carbide Method)

50

Maintenance on August 17, 2020, planned to resume on October 2

Leshan Yongxiang

12

On August 18, the parking lot was affected by flooding, and it is expected to resume in Octob.

Xinjiang Tianye

140

Rotational repairs began on September 24, Tianchen factory was overhauled on September 24, and Tianneng factory was overhauled on October 1 It is estimated that it will take about 8 days, and Tianyu Xinshi will start overhauling after the e.

Shandong Xinfa

50

The second phase of 500,000 tons will be overhauled on October 15, and the first phase is scheduled to be overhauled in early Novemb.

Ordos

80

It is planned to be repaired in rotation on October 20, with the old factory first and then the new facto.

Suzhou Huasu

113

It is planned to be overhauled for about 30 days in late Octob.

Hebei Julong

12

It is planned to be overhauled for about 3 days at the end of Octob.

Ningxia Elite

25

It is planned to be repaired by the end of Octob.

petrochemical

Capacity

Device dynamics

petrochemical

petrochemical

Capacity

Capacity

Device dynamics

Device dynamics

Salt Lake Magnesium Industry

30

Overhauled on August 13th and planned to resume on November 10.

Salt Lake Magnesium Industry

Salt Lake Magnesium Industry

30

30

Overhauled on August 13th and planned to resume on November 10.

Overhauled on August 13th and planned to resume on November 10.

Salt Lake Magnesium Industry (Calcium Carbide Method)

50

Maintenance on August 17, 2020, planned to resume on October 2

Salt Lake Magnesium Industry (Calcium Carbide Method)

Salt Lake Magnesium Industry (Calcium Carbide Method)

50

50

Maintenance on August 17, 2020, planned to resume on October 2

Maintenance on August 17, 2020, planned to resume on October 2

Leshan Yongxiang

12

On August 18, the parking lot was affected by flooding, and it is expected to resume in Octob.

Leshan Yongxiang

Leshan Yongxiang

12

12

On August 18, the parking lot was affected by flooding, and it is expected to resume in Octob.

On August 18, the parking lot was affected by flooding, and it is expected to resume in Octob.

Xinjiang Tianye

140

Rotational repairs began on September 24, Tianchen factory was overhauled on September 24, and Tianneng factory was overhauled on October 1 It is estimated that it will take about 8 days, and Tianyu Xinshi will start overhauling after the e.

Xinjiang Tianye

Xinjiang Tianye

140

140

Rotational repairs began on September 24, Tianchen factory was overhauled on September 24, and Tianneng factory was overhauled on October 1 It is estimated that it will take about 8 days, and Tianyu Xinshi will start overhauling after the e.

Rotational repairs began on September 24, Tianchen factory was overhauled on September 24, and Tianneng factory was overhauled on October 1 It is estimated that it will take about 8 days, and Tianyu Xinshi will start overhauling after the e.

Shandong Xinfa

50

The second phase of 500,000 tons will be overhauled on October 15, and the first phase is scheduled to be overhauled in early Novemb.

Shandong Xinfa

Shandong Xinfa

50

50

The second phase of 500,000 tons will be overhauled on October 15, and the first phase is scheduled to be overhauled in early Novemb.

The second phase of 500,000 tons will be overhauled on October 15, and the first phase is scheduled to be overhauled in early Novemb.

Ordos

80

It is planned to be repaired in rotation on October 20, with the old factory first and then the new facto.

Ordos

Ordos

80

80

It is planned to be repaired in rotation on October 20, with the old factory first and then the new facto.

It is planned to be repaired in rotation on October 20, with the old factory first and then the new facto.

Suzhou Huasu

113

It is planned to be overhauled for about 30 days in late Octob.

Suzhou Huasu

Suzhou Huasu

113

113

It is planned to be overhauled for about 30 days in late Octob.

It is planned to be overhauled for about 30 days in late Octob.

Hebei Julong

12

It is planned to be overhauled for about 3 days at the end of Octob.

Hebei Julong

Hebei Julong

12

12

It is planned to be overhauled for about 3 days at the end of Octob.

It is planned to be overhauled for about 3 days at the end of Octob.

Ningxia Elite

25

It is planned to be repaired by the end of Octob.

Ningxia Elite

Ningxia Elite

25

25

It is planned to be repaired by the end of Octob.

It is planned to be repaired by the end of Octob.

Later part of the enterprise equipment maintenance plan

From the above table, the autumn maintenance of PVC manufacturers has basically started, and most of the maintenance time is in the middle and late Octob.

Therefore, from the perspective of supply, the supply of the late PVC market is still in a state of tensi.

In addition, Tianjin Port stopped PVC transportation during the Double Festiv.

This action caused the shortage of spot in South Chi.

In addition, the high cost of reducing and adjusting goods in various regions and the lack of operability caused the spot in the South China PVC market to rise continuous.

It is reported that the outage of PVC in Tianjin Port will last until around the 20th, and the shortage situation in South China will be difficult to change in the short term, and the price will continue to be relatively hi.

Demand side: In August, the apparent consumption of PVC in China was 8218 million tons, an increase of 130,200 tons compared with August 2019 (6916 million tons), a year-on-year increase of 7
In addition, the continuous growth of sales in the real estate industry in the third quarter has driven the demand for profiles, pipes and other industri.

However, in the later period, as the weather gradually turns cold, the downstream construction and real estate construction will be weakened to a certain exte.

In terms of exports, the export arbitrage window began to open in mid-August, and then the arbitrage space continued to expa.

From the end of August to the end of September, the number of export orders has increased significant.

According to incomplete statistics, it is about 200,000 to.

This part of the export volume will be delivered in September, and a large amount of goods will be delivered in October or even Novemb.

form a larger suppo.

Futures: Futures are what contributed to this round of rising market pric.

After the holiday, PVC futures rose sharply, breaking through 6,700 yuan, boosting the spot market, and PVC futures in the short term are still in a high-level consolidation situati.

The market outlook should continue to pay attention to the impact of the futures market on the spot tre.

To sum up, the price of raw material calcium carbide is relatively stable, and the support for PVC is acceptab.

What we need to pay attention to in the later stage is whether the shortage of supply can be improved after transportation is restored, the situation of autumn maintenance and the commissioning of new production capacity, the macroscopic aspect, the development of foreign epidemics, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, and winter constructi.

It is expected that the PVC market in the later period will remain high and volatile, and it cannot be ruled out that there will be a fall after a surge in a short period of ti.