PVC shock declined, downstream demand recovery is slow

News: Formosa Plastics' export quotation in October was partially adjusted compared with September, CFR China fell 20 US dollars / ton at 870 US dollars / ton, FOB Taiwan fell 20 US dollars / ton at 840 US dollars / ton, CFR India stabilized at 910 US dollars / ton, a large volume discount of 10 US dollars / ton
.

Spot market: There is a wait-and-see mood
in the domestic PVC plastic market.
V2001 futures opened high and low, and continued to run below the moving average in the afternoon, and the market wait-and-see sentiment was stronger
.
Downstream enterprises do not receive many orders, and merchants can have moderate discounts
for actual recipients.
At present, the mainstream of type 5 in East China is 6650-6780 yuan / ton, the mainstream of type 5 in South China is 6800-6890 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of type 5 in Hebei is 6680-6780 yuan / ton
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Exchange warehouse receipts reported 9199 lots, -0 lots, in the historical high area
.
Main position: the top 20 long positions in the main contract are 133823 lots, -6002 lots, short positions are 110303 lots, -3751 lots, and the net position is 23520 lots, net long is reduced
.

Summary: Since entering September, affected by the peak of production equipment maintenance, the market supply has decreased, and the social inventory of PVC has continued to decline
.
This supports the price of PVC to a certain extent
.
However, the Saudi oil field attack that drove the current round of the market has turned around, and the Saudi energy minister announced that Saudi oil supply has returned to the level
before the attack on oil facilities.
As a result, international crude oil fell sharply, which in turn drove the chemical sector to fall
sharply.
At present, the downstream demand for PVC is still relatively sluggish
.
Domestic real estate development investment has been at a high since April, and the growth rate has fallen
for four consecutive months from May to August.
From January to August, real estate development investment increased by 10.
5% year-on-year, down 0.
1 percentage points from the previous value, indicating that PVC downstream demand recovered slowly
.
In addition, the spot market traded calmly and prices rose
slightly.
Downstream goods increased slightly, and the transaction atmosphere was mild
.
However, affected by the environmental protection and production restriction policy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, it is expected that it will be difficult to improve in the short term, and the demand will have limited price pull
.
Operationally, it is recommended that investors continue to hold
short orders with caution.