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On Friday, the PVC main contract 2205 closed at 9070 yuan / ton, a weekly increase of 332 yuan / ton
.
In the week after the holiday, the thermal coal 2205 contract strengthened sharply, reaching around 830 yuan / ton
.
Meanwhile, COMEX crude oil remains on an upward trajectory, and oil prices are expected to rise to $90-100/barrel
.
As a result, rising energy costs drove up PVC prices after the holiday
.
In addition, under the wide credit and stable growth, infrastructure and real estate are expected
to recover.
These have contributed to the spring rebound
of PVC.
Overseas, driven by the Chinese market, Asia rose by 20-50 US dollars / ton, export Southeast Asian profits shrank to 75 yuan / ton, India in the middle of the year or cancel anti-dumping duties, but at present China's supply has no advantage, European and American individual equipment maintenance or force majeure, the market remains stable, Formosa Plastics March quotation is expected to increase by 50-100 US dollars / ton
compared with February.
On the cost side, calcium carbide is relatively excessive, which has experienced three rounds of price reductions, with a decrease of 150 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive gross profit margin of PVC marginal production capacity has risen to 15%.
From the supply and demand side, the overall equipment maintenance on the supply side is less, the supply is more stable, the market pays more attention to the demand side, PVC is more used in the back end of real estate, delivery pressure and housing enterprise credit improvement expectations, it is expected that the completed area will continue to improve, will boost PVC demand, in addition, PVC exports are expected to remain strong, in short, strong demand is expected to support the rebound
.
However, it is still in the seasonal off-season, and the downstream is still not clearly driven, the seasonal accumulation continues, and the basis is weak, which has an impact
on the rebound rhythm.
Of course, the upward height in the later stage needs to pay attention to the actual fulfillment
of the demand side.
The overall PVC runs strongly in the game between strong expectations and weak reality
.
In summary, inventory neutrality, high valuation, no profit support, focus on the recovery of peripheral and domestic demand, and expect a weak trend of shock
.
