PVC prices have fallen sharply The demand side is about to turn into the off-season

Spot prices across the country fell
sharply.
As of June 17th, the ex-factory price of five-type calcium carbide method in Northwest China is around
7950~8000 yuan / ton.
The market price of the five-type calcium carbide method in East China is about 8070 yuan / ton, the quotation in South China is about 8200 yuan / ton, and the quotation in North China is 7800 yuan / ton
.
In terms of foreign markets, CFR China is 1190 US dollars / ton, CFR India 1370 US dollars / ton
.
CFR Southeast Asia 1265 US dollars / ton
.
FOB Western Europe 1855 US dollars / ton
.
FAS Houston $1620/mt
.

With the decline in export quotations and the synchronous accumulation of factory warehouses and social libraries, the expectation that PVC demand is about to turn into the off-season is gradually being fulfilled, and spot prices have fallen
sharply.

In the short term, June is the final point of the overhaul, with a large number of installations and capacity about to return in the next one to two months, which means that when demand turns into the off-season, supply will increase at the same time, or will exacerbate the situation of oversupply, so the price bottom may not really be here
yet.

It should be noted that the subsequent return of PVC production capacity will drive calcium carbide demand to a certain extent, which may have a certain supporting effect on calcium carbide prices, helping to raise the calcium carbide cost line, and when the spot price falls sharply below the calcium carbide cost line, it may cause some production capacity to passively reduce and support the price of PVC disk
.

For the subsequent market, the current PVC may still have room to fall from the demand side, but the sharp decline in prices may cause some production enterprises to reduce production due to losses, thereby alleviating supply pressure to a certain extent, and eventually supporting prices
.